MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Wary of Shooting Star

Price Signal Summary – AUD Wary of Possible Shooting Star

• A M/T bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact, however, the latest sell-off highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move down this week has resulted in the breach of two key support points; 5606.50, the 50-day EMA, and 5604.50, the base of a bull channel. S&P E-Minis maintain a softer short-term tone. The below support at 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancel recent bearish signals and signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle.
• A key short-term resistance in GBPUSD at 1.3203, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3303. USDJPY traded higher Monday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of recent gains. The 155.00 handle has been cleared and sights are on 155.53 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. A sharp move down this week so far, in AUDUSD, highlights a clear bear threat. This also reinforces a short-term bearish signal on Nov 13 - a shooting star (inverted hammer) candle formation.
• The downleg in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. With the metal retracing from last week’s high, the key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA. A sell-off in WTI futures on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
• A bear theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. The latest sharp pullback in Gilt futures is considered corrective - for now - and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position.           

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend  

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.1598 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

Resistance to watch in EURUSD is 1.1669, the Oct 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to strengthen a short-term bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. This highlights a dominant downtrend and continues to suggest that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact          

• RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3303 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3203/16 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.3161 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.3085/10 Low Nov 12 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

A key short-term resistance in GBPUSD at 1.3203, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3303. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode condition and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal would signal the end of the correction and a resumption of the bear leg. The bear trigger is 1.3010, the Nov 4 and 5 low.                   

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
• RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
• RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8865 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 0.8814 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 0.8781 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8769 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.8737 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8706 Low Oct 24 and a key support  

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent trend highs. A fresh cycle high last week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8868 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key short-term support to watch lies at  0.8781, the 20-day EMA. A break of the average would highlight the start of a corrective phase.     

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High 

• RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 1: 155.38 Intraday high
• PRICE: 155.06 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 153.49 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7   
• SUP 3: 151.58 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

USDJPY traded higher Monday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of recent gains. The 155.00 handle has been cleared and sights are on 155.53 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 153.49, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.    

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure 

• RES 4: 181.70 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 181.01 1.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 180.02 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 179.65 @ 07:59 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 177.93/176.14 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 174.30 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low   
• SUP 4: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross is trading at its cycle highs. Recent strength has resulted in a break of the bull trigger at 178.82, the Oct 30 high, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and this maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 180.37, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 177.93, the 20-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present 

• RES 4: 0.6660 High Sep 18 
• RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 0.6525/6580 20-day EMA / High Nov 13 
• PRICE: 0.6492 @ 08:05 GMT Nov 18 
• SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5 
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

A sharp move down this week so far, in AUDUSD, highlights a clear bear threat. This also reinforces a short-term bearish signal on Nov 13 -  a shooting star (inverted hammer) candle formation. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term pivot resistance has been defined at 0.6580, the Nov 13 high. A continued sell-off would expose 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.         

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme     

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.4170 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
• RES 2: 1.4140/67 High Nov 5 / 50.0% of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4062 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 1.4040 @ 08:18 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.3985 Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 1.3968 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3893 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low  
• SUP 4: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support

The short-term outlook in USDCAD is bearish. Price action is trading inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The top of the channel - currently at 1.4170 - provided a firm resistance on Nov 11. The subsequent move down highlights scope for a bear extension towards the base of the channel at 1.3893. Initial key support to watch is 1.3968, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a break of the channel top would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact                  

• RES 4: 129.73 High Oct 28 
• RES 3: 129.40 High Nov 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 129.12 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 129.10 50-day EMA        
• PRICE: 128.75 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 18 
• SUP 1: 128.50 Low Nov 17      
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support

A bear theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, last Thursday’s high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal.           

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Cycle      

• RES 4: 118.600 High Oct 24       
• RES 3: 118.360 High Oct 28   
• RES 2: 118.270 High Nov 5  118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
• RES 1: 117.960/118.121 Low Nov 10 / 50-day EMA.   
• PRICE: 117.920 @ 06:00 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 117.800 Low Nov 17  
• SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1  
• SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 15 and a key support 

The short-term trend condition in Bobl futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. Note that 117.824, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 117.630, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.121, the 50-day EMA.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Southbound       

• RES 4: 107.235 High Oct 22
• RES 3: 107.175 High Oct 24 
• RES 2: 107.037/073 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 107.010 Low Oct 30   
• PRICE: 106.980 @ 06:16 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 106.945 Low Nov 17   
• SUP 2: 106.960 Low Oct 2  
• SUP 3: 106.945 Low Oct 1
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces bearish conditions. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 106.920, the Sep 25 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is 107.037, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 107.073. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term resistance zone.            

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Bear Cycle Still In Play               

• RES 4: 93.33 Low Nov 13 a gap high on the daily chart 
• RES 3: 93.00 20-day EMA        
• RES 2: 92.85 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 92.45 High Nov 17  
• PRICE: 92.39 @ Close Nov 17
• SUP 1: 91.94 Low Nov 17       
• SUP 2: 91.82 High Sep 11 and a former key breakout level
• SUP 3: 91.67 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 91.12 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg  

The latest sharp pullback in Gilt futures is considered corrective - for now - and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, the Nov 14 high. For bears, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme and open 91.67, a Fibonacci retracement.        

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Phase        

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 120.87 @ Close Nov 17
• SUP 1: 120.53 Low Nov 14           
• SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25

The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Note that the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.                    

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Breaches Key Support Points  

• RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing   
• RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5744.00 High Nov 14  
• RES 1: 5675.90 20-day EMA       
• PRICE: 5570.00 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 5556.00 Low Nov 17    
• SUP 2: 5503.00 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 5458.00 Low Sep 26 
• SUP 4: 5427.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle      

A M/T bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact, however, the latest sell-off highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move down this week has resulted in the breach of two key support points; 5606.50, the 50-day EMA, and 5604.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5503.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 5675.90, the 20-day EMA.            

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bear Leg Extends              

• RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger 
• RES 2: 6900.50 High Nov 12 
• RES 1: 6793.65 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 6657.00 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 6600.00 Round number support   
• SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend 

S&P E-Minis maintain a softer short-term tone. The below support at 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancel recent bearish signals and signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Note that price has also breached support at the 50-day EMA. An extension would open 6540.25, the Oct 10 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6793.65, the 20-day EMA.         

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance  Intact For Now           

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $63.65 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A sell-off in Brent futures on Nov 12 highlights a bearish development. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play - for now. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Bear Threat Intact While Resistance Holds         

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $59.38 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 18 
• SUP 1: $55.96 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A sell-off in WTI futures on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.     

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Support         

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction 
• RES 1: $4106.7/4245.2 - High Nov 17 / 13                    
• PRICE: $4003.3 @ 07:32 GMT Nov 18 
• SUP 1: $3932.1 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

The downleg in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. With the metal retracing from last week’s high, the key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3932.1. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.                      

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $49.956 @ 08:25 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $49.363 - Intraday low  
• SUP 2: $47.390/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective, for now. Support to watch lies at 50-day EMA, at $47.390. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection.