MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Trend Set Up Holds Bullish

Price Signal Summary – AUD Trend Set Up Remains Bullish

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading inside a range for now. The trend condition is bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend.
• The uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be corrective. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows together with a bull set-up in moving average studies highlights a dominant uptrend. The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish. The cross has breached a key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high, and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish, affirmed by the pair printing a new YTD high at 0.6546 yesterday. Key support lies at 0.6416, the 50-day EMA.
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures have traded higher this week and yesterday’s gains mark an acceleration of the current bull phase. The contract has cleared all key retracement points of the Apr 2 - 9 bear leg and this signals scope for an extension towards $71.10.
• Recent weakness in Bund futures still appears corrective - for now - and the trend condition remains bullish. The contract is trading higher today, extending the recovery from 130.12, the Jun 5 low. Sights are on 131.47. Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday, resuming their short-term uptrend and this strengthens the current bullish theme. This move higher also marks an extension of the breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact                     

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1529 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.1516 @ 06:10 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 1.1368 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1242/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

A bullish EURUSD theme remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce conditions. The breach of 1.1495, the Jun 5 high, has again confirmed an extension of the bull cycle and opens 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 1.1242, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme. Initial support is 1.1356, the 20-day EMA.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3616 High Jun 5    
• PRICE: 1.3581 @ 06:19 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 1.3456 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 1.3316 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3196 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

The uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be corrective. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows together with a bull set-up in moving average studies highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at 1.3473, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3316.    

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains    

• RES 4: 0.8557 High Apr 28  
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 2 
• RES 2: 0.8502 38.2% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8489 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 0.8483 @ 06:35 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 0.8442 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

EURGBP is holding on to this week’s gains. The latest recovery has resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8442, the 50-day EMA. This highlights a stronger reversal and exposes; 0.8502, a Fibonacci retracement and 0.8541, the May 2 high.Support to watch lies at 0.8356, the May 29 low. Clearance of this level would resume the recent downtrend. Initial firm support lies at 0.8407, the Jun 4 low.   

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook    

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.46/146.28 High Jun 11 / High May 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: 143.80 @ 06:51 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY has pulled back from Wednesday’s session high and is trading lower today. This suggests the correction between Jun 3 - 11, is over. The trend remains bearish - moving average studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of 142.12, the May 27 low. Key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high. First resistance is at 145.46, the Jun 11 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat    

• RES 4: 170.47 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 2024 bear leg 
• RES 3: 167.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance        
• RES 1: 166.42 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 165.67 @ 06:58 BST Jun 12 
• SUP 1: 164.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 163.08 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish. The cross has breached a key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high, and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 166.69 next, the Oct 31 2024 high and a key resistance. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal. First support lies at 164.00, the 20-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High      

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6546 High June 11
• PRICE: 0.6497 @ 08:07 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 0.6468/6416 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish, affirmed by the pair printing a new YTD high at 0.6546 yesterday. Key support lies at 0.6416, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat     

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3883/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3762 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3655 @ 08:12 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 1.3611 Low Oct 8 2024        
• SUP 2: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024 

The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3579 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3883. The 20-day EMA is at 1.3762.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Approaching Resistance                          

• RES 4: 132.00 Round number resistance               
• RES 3: 131.85 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 131.50 High May 7 
• RES 1: 131.47 High Jun 5                       
• PRICE: 131.18 @ 08:04 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 130.12 Jun 5 low              
• SUP 2: 129.30/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.97 Low May 14  
• SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9 

Recent weakness in Bund futures still appears corrective - for now - and the trend condition remains bullish. The contract is trading higher today, extending the recovery from 130.12, the Jun 5 low. Sights are on 131.47, the Jun 5 high where a break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 131.85, the Apr 22 high and the bull trigger. Key near-term support has been defined at  130.12, the Jun 5 low.                                               

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact For Now                        

• RES 4: 119.790 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.600 High Apr 22           
• RES 2: 118.300 High May 7  
• RES 1: 118.280 High Jun 3 / 5   
• PRICE: 117.890 @ 06:03 BST Jun 12  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the sharp pullback on May 5 - for now - still appears corrective. The recovery since mid May highlights a reversal and the end of a correction in April and May. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a move towards 118.300, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 118.790, the Apr 7 high. Support to monitor is 117.470, the May 21 low. The bull trigger is 118.280, Jun 3 / 5 high.                           

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Remains Above Its Recent Lows                         

• RES 4: 107.830 High Apr 22  
• RES 3: 107.690 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.320/475 Low May 29 / High May 27 
• PRICE: 107.290 @ 06:22 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 107.195 Low Jun 6    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures are trading above their recent lows. The contract remains in a bull cycle, however, the sharp sell-off on Jun 5  does undermine the bull theme. A resumption of gains would highlight the fact that the retracement has been a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 107.475, the May 27 high. A break would be a bullish development. For bears, an extension lower would instead expose the key support at 107.125, the May 12 low.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play                         

• RES 4: 93.26 1.500 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 93.05 1.382 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing     
• RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 92.87 High Jun 10   
• PRICE: 92.56@ Close Jun 11
• SUP 1: 92.09/91.56 Low Jun 11 / 9 
• SUP 2: 91.16/90.59 Low Jun 2 / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 4: 90.00 Round number support        

Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday, resuming their short-term uptrend and this strengthens the current bullish theme. This move higher also marks an extension of the breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. The climb signals scope for a continuation higher and sights are on the 93.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 91.56, the Jun 9 low. A clear break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.                                  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Northbound                                        

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 121.41 High Jun 11 
• PRICE: 121.25 @ Close Jun 11 
• SUP 1: 120.33 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 121.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.33 the 20-day EMA.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trend Signals Remain Bullish  

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5356.00 @ 07:37 BST Jun 12 
• SUP 1: 5350.00 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 5295.43 50-day EMA and a key support 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading inside a range for now. The trend condition is bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5295.43, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Northbound  

• RES 4: 6172.38 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing     
• RES 3: 6124.00 High Feb 24  
• RES 2: 6080.75 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 6074.75 High Jun 11  
• PRICE: 6014.50 @ 07:48 BST Jun 12  
• SUP 1: 5921.50/58160.70 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5756.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5596.00 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5455.50 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6080.75 next, the Feb 26 high. Key support to watch lies at 5816.70, the 50-day EMA.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bull Cycle Extends    

• RES 4: $77.36 - High Jan 15
• RES 3: $75.33 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $70.83 - High Jun 11 
• PRICE: $69.32 @ 07:11 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: $65.62 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and yesterday’s impulsive rally strengthens current conditions. The contract has cleared all the key retracement points of the Apr 2 - 9 bear leg and this signals scope for an extension towards $73.89, the Apr 2 high. The rally also undermines a recent bearish theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at $65.62, the 50-day EMA. A break would highlight a possible reversal.         

WTI TECHS: (N5) Uptrend Accelerates          

• RES 4: $74.61 - High Jan 15 
• RES 3: $72.12 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $69.29 - Intraday high 
• PRICE: $67.71 @ 07:26 BST Jun 12 
• SUP 1: $63.04 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $59.74/54.33 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing

WTI futures have traded higher this week and yesterday’s gains mark an acceleration of the current bull phase. The contract has cleared all key retracement points of the Apr 2 - 9 bear leg and this signals scope for an extension towards $71.10 the Apr 2 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A break of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is $63.04, 50-day EMA.   

GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish                                   

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3403.5 - High Jun 5         
• PRICE: $3370.5 @ 07:30 BST Jun 12 
• SUP 1: $3249.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, support to monitor is $3249.9, the 50-day EMA.       

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave                 

• RES 4: $37.478 - High Mar 2012  
• RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
• RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 1: $36.886 - High Jun 9 
• PRICE: $36.220 @ 08:15 BST Jun 12 
• SUP 1: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: $33.416/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

An impulsive bull wave in Silver remains in play and last week’s strong gains plus Monday’s extension, reinforce this condition. Last week’s rally resulted in a move above $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.987 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $33.967, the Jun 3 low.