MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Posts Strong Recovery

Price Signal Summary – AUD Posts Strong Recovery

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has been breached. A short-term bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, however, the recovery from Monday’s low appears to be a potential reversal. The contract has traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north, affirmed by Tuesday's break to a new YTD high. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. USDJPY remains below Monday’s high. This week’s move lower undermines a recent bullish theme and Monday’s price pattern appears to be a shooting star candle formation. If correct, it signals a reversal of the recent bull cycle. The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The sharp reversal higher from Monday’s low reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the latest corrective pullback.                     
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from Monday’s high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.50. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.                
• Bund futures remain in consolidation mode, trading below the Jun 13 high. For now, the recent move down appears to be a correction. Key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A bullish condition in Gilt futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. This week’s strong gains reinforce the current bullish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Pierces The Bull Trigger                       

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1641 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 1.1615 @ 06:12 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 1.1472 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1332/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. Resistance and a bull trigger at 1.1631, the Jun 12 high,  has been pierced confirming a resumption of the trend. This opens 1.1685, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1472, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement that would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.1332.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High 

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3648 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 1.3620 @ 06:40 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 1.3499 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3377 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north, affirmed by Tuesday's break to a new YTD high. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Initial support lies at 1.3499, the 20-day EMA. The key short-term support lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3377.         

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Just Below Its Recent Highs  

• RES 4: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8624 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg 
• RES 1: 0.8575 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 0.8529 @ 06:59 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 0.8498/8471 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

EURGBP continues to trade just below its recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position - this reinforces the current bull theme. Scope is seen for a test of 0.8592 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8471, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.    

USDJPY TECHS: Shooting Star Candle Highlights A Reversal      

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 23 / 23  
• PRICE: 145.13 @ 07:21 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 144.81 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 144.34 Low Jun 18  
• SUP 3: 142.80 Low Jun 13   
• SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support   

USDJPY remains below Monday’s high. This week’s move lower undermines a recent bullish theme and Monday’s price pattern appears to be a shooting star candle formation. If correct, it signals a reversal of the recent bull cycle. Support to watch lies at 144.81, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, a move above Monday’s high of 148.03 would reinstate a bullish theme.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24 
• RES 3: 170.47 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Jul - Aug ‘24 downleg  
• RES 2: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 169.71 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 168.64 @ 07:27 BST Jun 25 
• SUP 1: 167.46 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 2: 166.12 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 164.95 Low Jun 13   
• SUP 4: 164.40 50-day EMA   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to this week’s session, reinforces a bullish theme. The cross has recently cleared 166.69, the Oct 31 ‘24 high. Scope is seen for a climb towards 170.47, a key Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the cross is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 166.12, the 20-day EMA.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition     

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6493 @ 08:03 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 0.6454/6373 Low Jun 24 / 23
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6309 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jun 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The sharp reversal higher from Monday’s low reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the latest corrective pullback. The climb Monday also highlights a bullish price pattern - a hammer candle formation. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6552, the Jun 16 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.   

USDCAD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective       

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21 
• RES 1: 1.3821 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3734 @ 08:08 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 1.3635 Low Jun 18  
• SUP 2: 1.3540/3534 Low Jun 16 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

A primary downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3713, has been breached. A continuation higher would signal scope for a stronger retracement. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3821. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact                           

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 131.33 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 130.63 @ 05:47 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 130.17 Low Jun 16              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Bund futures remain in consolidation mode, trading below the Jun 13 high. For now, the recent move down appears to be a correction. Key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and undermine the bullish theme. This would open 129.30, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high.                                                 

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed                       

• RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 118.065 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg   
• PRICE: 117.810 @ 06:00 BST Jun 25  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle, however, the contract continues to trade in consolidation mode and below its Jun 13 high. The latest pullback has exposed key S/T support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel the recent bull theme. This would open 117.470, the May 21 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.390, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish.                             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                            

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.229 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 107.260 @ 06:33 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode and price is trading below the Jun 13 high. Support to watch lies at 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. First key resistance is 107.430, the Jun 13 high.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bullish Outlook                       

• RES 4: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.73 1.764 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 93.51/93.68 High Jun 24 / 13
• PRICE: 93.47 @ Close Jun 24
• SUP 1: 92.51 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 92.23 Low Jun 16 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bullish condition in Gilt futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. This week’s strong gains reinforce the current bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined 92.23, the Jun 16 low. A break of this level is required to undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, sights are on 93.68, the Jun 13 high and bull trigger.                                    

BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 121.13 @ Close Jun 24 
• SUP 1: 119.91 Low May 29      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Gains earlier this month reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 119.91, the May 29 low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Breaches MA Resistance Points 

• RES 4: 5486.00 High May 20 and a key bull trigger  
• RES 3: 5456.00 High Jun 11 
• RES 2: 5403.00 High Jun 12 
• RES 1: 5364.00 High Jun 16   
• PRICE: 5336.00 @ 07:01 BST Jun 25 
• SUP 1: 5194.00 Lo Jun 23 and a bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 5182.00 Low May 2 
• SUP 3: 5100.94 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

A short-term bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, however, the recovery from Monday’s low appears to be a potential reversal. The contract has traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a breach of Monday’s 5194.00 low would reinstate a bearish theme.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Northbound  

• RES 4: 6249.00 High Feb 21      
• RES 3: 6200.00 1.50 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 6172.50 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 6155.25 High Jun 24    
• PRICE: 6147.00 @ 07:25 BST Jun 25  
• SUP 1: 5959.00/5922.67 Low Jun 23 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Sights are on the 6200.00 handle, a Fibonacci projection. Key support remains at the 50-day EMA - at 5922.67. A clear break of it would signal a reversal.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Reversal Extends 

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
• RES 2: $82.13 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
• RES 1: $74.11/81.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $67.98 @ 06:08 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: $66.82 - Low Jun 24  
• SUP 2: $62.09 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.20 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.78 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures traded sharply lower Monday, and for now, the contract maintains a softer tone. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and note too that $67.05, the 61.8% retracement of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $62.09 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $74.11, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA         

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $66.60 @ 06:06 BST Jun 24 
• SUP 1: $64.50/00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from Monday’s high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.50. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Support To Watch Lies At The 50-Day EMA                                    

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3451.3 - High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3332.1 @ 06:52 BST Jun 25 
• SUP 1: $3287.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20 
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has recently been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3287.7, the 50-day EMA.       

SILVER TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish                   

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18  
• PRICE: $35.973 @ 08:14 BST Jun 25 
• SUP 1: $35.581 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $34.315/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull wave in Silver is in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $35.581, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would open $34.315, the 50-day EMA.