MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Extends Bearish Theme

Price Signal Summary – AUD Extends Bearish Theme

• The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow retracement appears to be a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend, and positive market sentiment. The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on Tuesday. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme.
• GBPUSD is in retracement mode. This appears to be a correction - for now - and a bullish condition remains intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.3589, the Jul 24 high, signaling scope for a climb towards 1.3636. USDJPY is trading in a range. A short-term bearish threat is present and sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal on Aug 1. AUDUSD is trading lower as the pair extends this week’s bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below support at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would expose 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.                             
• Despite the latest pullback - a correction - a bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a medium-term pause in the uptrend. A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.29, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme.
• Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows. A bear threat remains present. The contract last week breached 128.84, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range. Gilt futures traded sharply lower on Aug 15 and Monday’s sell-off reinforced the current bearish theme. The contract has breached key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1730 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 1.1647 @ 05:53 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 1.1591 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

EURUSD is unchanged and is trading in a tight range. The trend structure remains bullish highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. A resumption of gains would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1591, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3595 High Aug 14
• PRICE: 1.3449 @ 06:15 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 1.3450/48 50-day EMA / Low Aug 20 
• SUP 2: 1.3400 Low Aug 11
• SUP 3: 1.3346 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 4: 1.3254 Low Aug 4      

GBPUSD is in retracement mode. This appears to be a correction - for now - and a bullish condition remains intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.3589, the Jul 24 high, signalling scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Clearance of this level would strengthen the S/T bull theme. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3450, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.  

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Its Recent Lows  

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28  
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8  
• RES 1: 0.8667 High Aug 20 
• PRICE: 0.8658 @ 06:36 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is trading above its recent lows. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Note that recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low. The cross has also pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8618. A clear breach of these supports would instead highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point. 

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12 
• PRICE: 147.42 @ 06:50 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.45/40 100-dma / 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 144.74 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low 

USDJPY is trading in a range. A short-term bearish threat is present and sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal on Aug 1. This would open 144.74, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of it would be viewed as a bull signal.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.02/97 High Aug 13 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 171.72 @ 07:17 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 170.32 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The underlying bull trend in EURJPY remains intact and any short-term weakness would for now, be considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.32. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing the primary uptrend. Clearance of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Short-Term Support  

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6497 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6419 @ 08:02 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 0.6415 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is trading lower as the pair extends this week’s bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below support at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would expose 0.6373, the Jun 23 low and an important support. From a trend perspective, the trend condition remains bullish for now. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6625, the Aug 24 high.   

USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Appreciate 

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3886 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3883 @ 08:09 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 1.3763/22 50-day EMA / Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: 1.3576 Low Jul 23 
• SUP 3: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing

Gains this week in USDCAD and Wednesday’s print above resistance at 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, is a positive development for bulls and highlights a resumption of the recovery that started Jun 16. This also negates a recent bearish threat. An extension and a clear breach of 1.3879, would signal scope for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.3763, the 50-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance  

• RES 4: 130.26 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 129.88/130.06 50-day EMA / High Aug 14   
• RES 2: 129.57 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.18 High Aug 18  
• PRICE: 129.38 @ 05:26 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 128.64 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows. A bear threat remains present. The contract last week breached 128.84, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range and a clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.88, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.57.  

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Gains Considered Corrective  

• RES 4: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 117.640 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 117.508 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.380 High AUg 20
• PRICE: 117.340 @ 05:48 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 116.950 Low Aug 15   
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Despite this week’s gaains, a bearish theme in Bobl futures remains intact. A strong sell-off on Aug 15 highlights a bearish threat, once again. The contract has pierced support at 116.970, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 116.849, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch is 117.508, the 50-day EMA. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 107.175 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.098 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.085 @ 05:53 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 106.985 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

A bear trend in Schatz futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The contract traded lower on August 15, resulting in a print below 106.990, the Aug 12 low. A clear breach of this level would resume the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is 107.098, the 20-day EMA. 

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 92.84 High Aug 5 and a bull trigger  
• RES 3: 92.37 High Aug 11       
• RES 2: 91.91 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 91.32/68 High Aug 18 / 15
• PRICE: 91.13 @ Close Aug 20
• SUP 1: 90.43 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number 
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)       

Gilt futures traded sharply lower on Aug 15 and Monday’s sell-off reinforced the current bearish theme. The contract has breached key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 90.11, the May 22 low. On the upside, gains are for now, considered corrective. Resistance to watch is seen at 91.91, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to highlight a potential reversal.  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Trading Inside A Range      

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.62 @ Close Aug 20
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish. However, for now, the contract continues to trade inside a range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Bullish Outlook 

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5568.00 High Mar 6  
• RES 2: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 1: 5503.00 High Aug 20 
• PRICE: 5480.00 @ 06:28 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 5392.56 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5360.68 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5280.00 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 4: 5249.00 Low Aug 5   

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on Tuesday. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5360.68, the 50-day EMA. 

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6554.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
• PRICE: 6414.75 @ 07:27 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 6403.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6287.15 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow retracement appears to be a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend, and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6403.75, the 20-day EMA, and 6287.15, the 50-day EMA.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness 

• RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.19 @ 07:09 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.36 - High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.10 @ 07:22 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.29, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $63.86, the 50-day EMA. 

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
• PRICE: $3336.2 @ 07:23 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Despite the latest pullback - a correction - a bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a medium-term pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.             

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.891 @ 08:16 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: $37.122/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recently recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.122. A clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.