MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Bumped Higher on Jobs Data

Price Signal Summary -  AUD Bumped Higher on Jobs Data

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the bear leg since the Oct 30 high appears to have been a correction. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6728.13, and a key level. A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has traded through resistance at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
• GBPUSD has pulled back from Monday’s high. The trend outlook remains bearish and the latest move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3214. The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. Wednesday’s climb delivered a print above 154.48, the Nov 4 high and a bull trigger. AUDUSD has rallied sharply higher today. This undermines the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The move higher has exposed resistance at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high.
• The downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and the move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. A sell-off in WTI futures yesterday, strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
• Bund futures continue to trade above their recent lows. A short-term bear cycle remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces the bear theme. The contract has recently cleared a number of important support points. The trend theme in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance         

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1622 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1616 @ 08:17 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD has pierced resistance at 1.1585, the 20-day EMA. The break paves the way for an extension of the corrective cycle, towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1622. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a potentially stronger bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low. Clearance of this level resumes the bear trend.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish          

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3319 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3214 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3191 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 1.3121 @ 06:19 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 1.3010 Low Nov 4 and 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

GBPUSD has pulled back from Monday’s high. The trend outlook remains bearish and the latest move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3214. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.3319. For bears, a resumption of the downtrend would open 1.2971, a Fibonacci projection.                  

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence 

• RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
• RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
• RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing
• PRICE: 0.8829 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 0.8768 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8763 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 0.8726 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The trend cycle in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross traded higher on Wednesday resulting in a breach of 0.8830, the Nov 5 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8848, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key short-term support to watch lies at  0.8768, the 20-day EMA. A break would highlight a possible short-term reversal.    

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 1: 155.04 High Nov 12
• PRICE: 154.92 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 13 
• SUP 1: 153.03 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29   
• SUP 3: 151.17 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. Wednesday’s climb delivered a print above 154.48, the Nov 4 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 155.53, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 153.03, the 20-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound 

• RES 4: 181.01 1.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 179.81 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 179.68 @ 08:21 GMT Nov 13 
• SUP 1: 177.28/175.68 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 174.09 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low   
• SUP 4: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart  

The trend in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and Wednesday’s  gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared the bull trigger at 178.82, the Oct 30 high, to confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 180.37, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 177.28, the 20-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Rally Extends 

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6651 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.6575 @ 07:56 GMT Nov 13 
• SUP 1: 0.6515/6459 Low Nov 11 / 5 
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

AUDUSD has rallied sharply higher today. This undermines the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The move higher has exposed resistance at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. A breach of this level is required to reinstate a bear theme.        

USDCAD TECHS: Trading At This Week’s Lows      

• RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9  
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4140/58 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low 
• PRICE: 1.3994 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 1.3990 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 1.3959 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3882 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

USDCAD is trading at this week’s lows. The latest pullback highlights a bearish development and a reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4158, remains intact. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. The pair has traded through support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.4019. This exposes the 50-day EMA at 1.3959. For bulls, a break of the channel top is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bear Threat Still Present                 

• RES 4: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 130.07 High Oct 24
• RES 2: 129.73 High Oct 28
• RES 1: 129.49 High Oct 31     
• PRICE: 129.26 @ 05:42 GMT Nov 13 
• SUP 1: 128.80 Low Nov 10 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support  

Bund futures continue to trade above their recent lows. A short-term bear cycle remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces the bear theme. The contract has recently cleared a number of important support points; the 50-day EMA, at 129.15, and 128.92, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. This signals scope for an extension towards 128.52, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance is at 129.49, the Oct 31 high.              

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Still In Play    

• RES 4: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 118.770 High Oct 22   
• RES 2: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
• RES 1: 118.190 20-day EMA.   
• PRICE: 118.120 @ 05:50 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 117.960/900 Low Nov 10 / Low Oct 10  
• SUP 2: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 117.710 Low Oct 6   
• SUP 4: 117.630 Low Oct 1 

The short-term trend condition in Bobl futures is unchanged, it remains bearish for now. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low on Monday, reinforcing a bear theme. Price is through 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. This signals scope for an extension towards 117.824, the 76.4% Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 118.190, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme       

• RES 4: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 107.235 High Oct 22
• RES 2: 107.175 High Oct 24
• RES 1: 107.063/087 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• PRICE: 107.020 @ 05:42 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 107.000 Low Nov 12   
• SUP 2: 106.995 Low  Oct 8   
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact. The downleg that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Note that 107.014, 76.4% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg and the next important support, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 106.995, the Oct 8 low. Initial resistance is at 107.087, the 50-day EMA.           

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Condition             

• RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing        
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 93.98 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 93.65 @ Close Nov 12
• SUP 1: 93.14/75 20-day EMA / Low Nov 10      
• SUP 2: 92.38 Low Oct 20
• SUP 3: 92.41 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 91.82 High Sep 11   

The trend theme in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the bull trigger at 93.98, the Nov 4 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 94.24, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 93.14, the 20-day EMA.        

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bull Flag Formation       

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.55 @ Close Nov 12
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.71 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend set-up in BTP futures remains bullish. Recent weakness appears corrective and the move down since Oct 22 appears to be flag formation, a bullish continuation pattern. Note too the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Extension 

• RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 5848.00 Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low
• RES 1: 5818.00 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing      
• PRICE: 5814.00 @ 06:24 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 5742.00 High Oct 29 and a recent breakout point   
• SUP 2: 5669.13 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5594.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 5588.00 Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 1 low    

A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has traded through resistance at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Attention is on 5818.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of this hurdle would open 5848.00, a bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low.  On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 5669.13, the 20-day EMA.           

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Sights Are On The Bull Trigger            

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 6909.50/6953.75 High Nov 3 / High Oct 30 and bull trigger  
• PRICE: 6891.75 @ 07:28 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 6814.74/6655.50 20-day EMA / Low Nov 7 & key S/T support 
• SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 bull cycle  

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the bear leg since the Oct 30 high appears to have been a correction. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6728.13, and a key level. Activity on Nov 7 highlights a potential reversal signal - a bullish doji candle. This defines key support at 6655.50, the Oct 7 low. Sights are on 6953.75, Oct 30 high and bull trigger.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance Intact For Now           

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $62.79 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A sell-off in Brent futures yesterday highlights a bearish development. An extension lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play - for now. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Extends        

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $58.47 @ 07:22 GMT Nov 13 
• SUP 1: $55.96 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A sell-off in WTI futures yesterday, strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.     

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Price Activity         

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                  
• PRICE: $4217.9 @ 07:26 GMT Nov 13 
• SUP 1: $4043.5 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $3910.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 3800.00 Round number support

The downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and the move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. A key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3910.9, is intact.  Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is $4264.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A stronger recovery would open $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.                    

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Gains Towards The Bull Trigger    

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $54.156 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: $49.207 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $46.928/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Price is approaching key resistance and the bull trigger at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $46.928. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.