MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Bull Phase Intact

Price Signal Summary – AUD Bull Phase Intact

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday strengthens the bull theme. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and Thursday's gains strengthen a bull theme. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg.
• A fresh short-term cycle high in EURUSD Thursday reinforces a bull theme and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656. A corrective bear cycle in EURGBP remains intact, however, recent gains signal a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact and sights are on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger. Note that MA studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position.
• Gold traded higher yesterday, reinforcing a bullish theme. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bear-mode condition. A continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93.
• Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is 128.75. Recent weakness in Gilt futures exposed an important support at 90.53, the Nov 25 / 26 low, however, a recovery from Monday’s low has eased a bearish threat. 

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - November Refresh

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play    

• RES 4: 1.1848 High Sep 18   
• RES 3: 1.1813 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1779 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 1.1763 High Dec 11
• PRICE: 1.1739 @ 06:18GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 1.1627 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1591 Low Dec 2 
• SUP 3: 1.1556 Low Nov 26
• SUP 4: 1.1491 Low Nov 21 

A fresh short-term cycle high in EURUSD Thursday reinforces a bull theme and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.1779 next, the October 1 high. Initial support to watch is 1.1627, the 20-day EMA  and pivot level. A clear breach of the average would be bearish and highlight a possible reversal.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High      

• RES 4: 1.3527 High Oct 1    
• RES 3: 1.3471 High Oct 17  
• RES 2: 1.3452 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3438 High Dec 11
• PRICE: 1.3396 @ 06:31 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 1.3277 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3267 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180/25 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 26 
• SUP 4: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger       

A fresh short-term cycle high this week in GBPUSD confirms a resumption of the current bull leg. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3452 next, 61.8% of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and open 1.3527, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3267, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be a bearish development and signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Resistance 

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Nov 20   
• RES 3: 0.8818 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8771 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8763 @ 06:49 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 0.8721 Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

A corrective bear cycle in EURGBP remains intact, however, recent gains signal a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.         

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Above Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.95/157.89 High Dec 9 / High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 155.69 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 154.95 Low Dec 11
• SUP 2: 153.87 50-day EMA and a key support area  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 in USDJPY appears to have been a correction and the recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. However, the latest retracement exposes support at 153.87, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open the 158.00 handle. 

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 184.42 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 183.07 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 182.89 Intraday high
• PRICE: 182.71 @ 07:14 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 180.87 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 178.98/178.79 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 176.29 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north and fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 182.01, the Nov 20 high and bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 184.42, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 180.87, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook     

• RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6686 High Dec 10
• PRICE: 0.6668 @ 08:00 GMT Dec 12 
• SUP 1: 0.6627/6579 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6552 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 

A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact and sights are on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger. Note that MA studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. A breach of 0.6707 would strengthen a bull theme. From a near-term perspective, the trend is overbought. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key support to watch is at 0.6579, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needlee Points South

• RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 2: 1.3954 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3872 High Dec 10  
• PRICE: 1.3763 @ 08:06 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 1.3757 Low Dec 11
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Sep17
• SUP 3: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact, reinforced by this week’s extension lower. The move down maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for a continuation towards 1.3727 next, the Sep 17 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3936, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Oversold But Remains Bearish                      

• RES 4: 129.55 High Nov 26 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 129.24 High Dec 1    
• RES 2: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 128.08/48 High Dec 8 / 20-day EMA           
• PRICE: 127.41 @ 05:51 GMT Dec 12 
• SUP 1: 127.05 Low Dec 10         
• SUP 2: 127.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 126.81 2.764 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.58 3.000 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Note that the contract is oversold. A stronger corrective bounce would allow this oversold condition to unwind. Wednesday's price pattern is a doji candle - a short-term reversal signal.               

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Bounce Considered Corrective        

• RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27  
• RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1   
• RES 1: 116.320/770 High Dec 8 / 3   
• PRICE: 115.960 @ 06:09 GMT Dec 12 
• SUP 1: 115.720 Low Dec 10  
• SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend theme in Bobl futures remains bearish following a recent impulsive sell-off. Price has breached support at 116.790, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 115.660 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend is oversold, a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. First important resistance is at 116.770, the Dec 3 high.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Bear Theme Remains Intact         

• RES 4: 106.975 High Dec 1 
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 106.885 Low Dec 2   
• RES 1: 106.835 High Dec 8  
• PRICE: 106.680 @ 06:03 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 106.630 Low Dec 10  
• SUP 2: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.583 2.500 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 106.945, the Dec 3 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Trading Above Support For Now                    

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.64/93 High Dec 11 / High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 91.48 @ Close Dec 11
• SUP 1: 90.62/90.53 Low Dec 8 / Low Nov 25 & 26       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent weakness in Gilt futures exposed an important support at 90.53, the Nov 25 / 26 low, however, a recovery from Monday’s low has eased a bearish threat. A breach of 90.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would instead signal scope for a climb to resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. Initial firm resistance is 91.93, the Nov 27 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Unwinding An Oversold Condition      

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.17/77 Low Nov 20 / High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 119.86 @ Close Dec 11
• SUP 1: 119.12 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing          
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support  
• SUP 3: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 118.56 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing

BTP futures have this week traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a bearish phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The impulsive sell-off opens 119.12 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is oversold, a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 120.17, the Nov 20 low.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Approaching Key Resistance     

• RES 4: 5902.82 1.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing      
• RES 3: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2:  5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 5791.00 Intraday high         
• PRICE: 5782.00 @ 06:44 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 5684.61 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 5637.69 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5518.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger       

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and Thursday's gains strengthen a bull theme. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. The breach of this price point paves the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and the bull trigger. First key support to watch lies at 5637.69, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Corrective Pullback                

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 6918.50 High Oct 31
• RES 1: 6908.00 High Dec 10    
• PRICE: 6905.50 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 6823.86 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6767.95 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6674.50 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 4: 6525.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday strengthens the bull theme. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. Sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Key support lies at 6525.00, the Nov 21 low. First support to watch is at 6823.86, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Key SUpport Remains Exposed            

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $61.62 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 12 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bear-mode condition. A continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch is unchanged at $65.25, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.       

WTI TECHS: (F6) Bearish Outlook Intact           

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $57.95 @ 07:16 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down this week reinforces this theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would open key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high.      

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4288.8 - Intraday high                   
• PRICE: $4285.1 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 12 
• SUP 1: $4173.44060.3 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

Gold traded higher yesterday, reinforcing a bullish theme. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4060.3. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.                       

SILVER TECHS: Northbound    

• RES 4: $68.397 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $66.312 - 2.000 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: $65.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $64.312 - Intraday high   
• PRICE: $63.796 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: $60.107/56.398 - Low Dec 12 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $52.102/48.644 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 
• SUP 3: $45.557 - Low Oct 28
• SUP 4: $41.135 - Low Sep 17 

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and this week’s push to fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The metal has traded through the psychological $60.00 handle and this paves the way for an extension towards the $62.937 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing current bullish conditions. Initial key support lies at $56.398, the 20-day EMA.