MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Bounce Retains Bull Case

Price Signal Summary – AUD Bounce Keeps Upside Argument Intact

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week as the contract extends the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high.
• The trend condition in EURJPY remains intact, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues holding on to its gains. Fresh cycle highs this week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and trend signals remain bearish. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3759, remains intact.
• Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5. WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.22.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the current bear leg. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recent bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish                      

• RES 4: 1.1985 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1736 @ 06:09 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.1683 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 1.1653 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1590 Low Jun 25  
• SUP 4: 1.1478-day EMA

EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest pullback appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Furthermore,  corrections have been shallow. This also reinforces the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1653, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Primary Uptrend Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3604 @ 06:26 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.3526 Low Jul 08
• SUP 2: 1.3477 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3409 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3245 Low May 19

The trend set-up in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Support around the 20-day EMA has been cleared, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards the next key support at the 50-day EMA at 1.3477. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, suggesting the M/T uptrend is intact.           

EURGBP TECHS: Continuation Pattern Reinforces The Bull Theme   

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing 
• RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14 
• RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
• PRICE: 0.8626 @ 06:53 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Jul 7 
• SUP 2: 0.8568/8516 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
• SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish. Recent activity still appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher and a confirmation of the flag would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8568, the 20-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play   

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3 
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 147.18 High Jul 9 
• PRICE: 146.23 @ 07:13 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 145.83 Low Jul 8   
• SUP 2: 145.07 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
• SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support  

A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger reversal. Note too that 146.77, 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg, has been pierced, a clear break of this level would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is 145.07, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish. 

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat  

• RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
• RES 1: 172.38 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• PRICE: 171.47 @ 07:59 BST Jul 10 
• SUP 1: 170.95  Low Jul 08 
• SUP 2: 168.97 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20   
• SUP 4: 166.48 50-day EMA   

The trend condition in EURJPY remains intact, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues holding on to its gains. Fresh cycle highs this week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.38 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 168.97, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6558 @ 08:04 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
• SUP 2: 0.6477/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6477, the 50-day EMA.     

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact      

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3710/3759 High Jul 9 / 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3669 @ 08:08 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and trend signals remain bearish. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3759, remains intact. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Maintains A Softer Tone                            

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 130.76/131.33 High Jul 4 / High Jun 20
• RES 1: 130.10/130.44 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.93 @ 05:45 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 129.39 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 129.30 Low May 22
• SUP 3: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  
• SUP 4: 128.90 Low Apr 10 

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the current bear leg. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recent bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.44, has recently been pierced but for now, remains intact. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.                                                   

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Support Has Been Breached                        

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20
• RES 2: 117.980 High Jul 4  
• RES 1: 117.741 20-day EMA    
• PRICE: 117.570 @ 06:04 BST Jul 10 
• SUP 1: 117.360 Low Jul 8  
• SUP 2: 117.210 1.000 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.000 Round number support       

Bobl futures traded lower Tuesday, resulting in a breach of support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and cancels a recent bull theme. Scope is seen for a move towards 117.210, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, resistance to watch is seen at 117.741, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal. This would refocus attention on 118.060, the Jun 20 high.                                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact For Now                               

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.274/365 20-day EMA / High Jul 7  
• PRICE: 107.230 @ 05:58 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures have traded lower this week but for now remain inside a range. Support to watch is 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm resistance is 107.365, the Jun 7 high.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Maintains A Bearish Tone                          

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 92.79 High Jul 4      
• RES 2: 92.45 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 91.98 High Jul 8 
• PRICE: 91.88 @ Close Jul 9 
• SUP 1: 91.42 Low Jul 8   
• SUP 2: 91.16 Low Feb 2
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg    
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. The move down exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.45, the 20-day EMA.                                       

BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 120.53 @ Close Jul 9
• SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of the bull cycle would open the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23  low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Pierces The Bull Trigger    

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5486.00/87.00 High May 20 and a key bull trigger / High Jul 9  
• PRICE: 5468.00 @ 06:51 BST Jul 10 
• SUP 1: 5344.38 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week as the contract extends the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle that began Apr 7, and would open the 5500.00 handle. On the downside key support has been defined at 5194.00, the Jun 23 low.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Northbound   

• RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6333.25 High Jul 3    
• PRICE: 6290.00 @ 07:26 BST Jul 10  
• SUP 1: 6246.25 Low Jul 7  
• SUP 2: 6176.77/6032.93 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23 
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a breach of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6032.93.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $70.24 @ 07:06 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Short-term conditions in Brent futures are unchanged, they remain bearish and the latest round of gains appear corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, highlighting a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Bear Threat Still Present           

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $68.43 @ 07:14 BST Jul 10 
• SUP 1: $65.09/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.22. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Support Holds For Now                                           

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16  
• RES 1: $3365.8 - High Jul 3          
• PRICE: $3327.6 @ 07:21 BST Jul 10 
• SUP 1: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note, the recovery from the Jun 30 low also highlights a possible false t-line break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, Jun 30 low.          

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North                    

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $36.685 @ 08:14 BST Jul 10  
• SUP 1: $36.216 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $35.135 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $32.615 - Low May 22 
• SUP 4: $31.651 - Low May 15 and a key support 

Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a bull cycle remains intact. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.216, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $35.135, the 50-day EMA.