CZECHIA: MNI CNB Review - Sep 2025: Holding Pattern
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Executive Summary
- The Bank Board unanimously decided to keep interest rates on hold.
- Risk balance was inflationary, but CZK strength provided some counterweight.
- Governor Michl left all options open for future meetings.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.50% in a well-telegraphed, unanimous decision, citing concern about ongoing domestic inflation pressures. The outcome was guided by a situation report, which showed that inflation was poised to hover above the central bank’s +2% Y/Y point-target for the remainder of this year amid continued core price stickiness. The tone of the press conference was broadly familiar, with Governor Michl leaving all options open for future meetings and refusing to provide clear forward guidance. Strong koruna appreciation was identified as one of the reasons for leaving both cuts and hikes on the table, with the Governor denying the existence of any pain threshold.
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar:Durables/Cap Goods, Regional Fed, 2Y Note Sale
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/26 0830 Richmond Fed Barkin expected to repeat speech on economy from Aug 12, will take audience Q&A).
- 08/26 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-10.3, --)
- 08/26 0830 Durable Goods Orders (-9.4%, -3.8%), ex-trans (0.2, 0.2)
- 08/26 0830 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-0.8, 0.2%), Ship (0.3%, 0.2%)
- 08/26 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (-0.2%, -0.1%)
- 08/26 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (-0.34%, -0.20%), YoY (2.79%, 2.09%)
- 08/26 1000 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (-20, 11), Business Conditions (-8, --)
- 08/26 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (97.2, 96.5)
- 08/26 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (2.0, --)
- 08/26 1130 US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction
- 08/26 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction (91882CNV9)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Support Remains Intact
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support to watch lies at 6304.76, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from last Friday’s high is for now, considered corrective. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5373.59, the 50-day EMA.
BTP: Block Trade
BTP Block trade, suggest buyer:
- IKU5 ~1.6k at 120.22.
