CZECHIA: MNI CNB Review - Nov 2025: Steady Course
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Executive Summary:
- The Bank Board left interest rates unchanged in a unanimous vote.
- The CNB revised inflation and growth projections marginally lower.
- Governor Michl left all options open for future meetings.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) left the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.50% in a widely anticipated unanimous decision supported by a fresh macroeconomic forecast. The rhetoric accompanying the decision sounded very familiar, with very modest adjustments. The central bank kicked the can down the road on adjusting its fiscal policy assumptions, citing the need to gain more certainty about the incoming government’s plans. Governor Aleš Michl left all options open for the coming meetings as the statement signalled a continued need to keep monetary policy relatively restrictive. We expect the CNB to keep interest rates stable for the foreseeable future but may change this view as fiscal outlook becomes clearer.
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SOFR OPTIONS: Nov'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Buyer
- +25,000 0QX5 97.37 calls, 1.5 vs. 96.875/0.05%
OAT: The 10yr Yield finds support aty 3.50%
- The French OAT is seeing one of its best range after falling to its lowest level since the 4th September on Monday.
- The French 10yr future is highest since 18th September, lowest since that date in Yield Term, but seems to finding some support just ahead of the 3.50%.
Today, reference 121.57:
- 3.50% = 121.74.
- 3.45% = 122.21.
- 3.40% = 122.67(September low and lowest since Mid Aug).
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SFIM6 96.50/96.75cs, bought for 5.25 in 6k.
