MNI CNB Preview - November 2025: Steady As She Goes

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Executive Summary:

• The CNB is expected to keep the two-week repo rate unchanged.
• Sticky services inflation remains a major source of concern.
• The presser and new macroeconomic forecasts will be in focus.

The Czech National Bank (CNB) remains in a holding pattern, with the current slightly restrictive monetary policy settings deemed appropriate to tackle lingering inflationary risks. With the two-week repo rate sitting at 3.50%, the upper end of the range of neutral-rate estimates, a resumption of monetary easing in this cycle hangs in the balance. We expect the Bank Board to stand pat on rates at least until the end of this year as it monitors the evolution of risks and price developments. Although the new projection may chart a slightly lower inflation path, Governor Michl is likely to reaffirm his hawkish rhetoric to signal continued resolve in the efforts to bring residual price pressures under control.