MNI China Press Digest Oct 13: Economy, Rare Earths, SMEs

Highlights from Chinese press reports on Monday: 

• Yicai News Agency’s Chief Economist Confidence Index registered 50.3 points in October, down from 50.6 in September but remaining above the 50 point expansion threshold for the third consecutive month. Economists forecasted third-quarter GDP growth at 4.8% year-on-year, with expectations of a similar pace in the fourth quarter. For the full year, the average GDP growth projection remained at 4.8%. Regarding upcoming September economic data, participants projected CPI growth at -0.2% year-on-year, PPI at -2.3%, fixed-asset investment growth at 0.0%, retail sales of consumer goods up 3.1% and industrial value-added up 5.1%. Analysts agreed that the probability of adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) or the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in October remained low, suggesting a steady monetary policy stance in the near term.
• China’s recent trade measures concerning certain rare earth products does not constitute an export ban and applications that meet the relevant requirements will be approved, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated. According to the spokesperson, China notified all relevant countries through its bilateral export control dialogue mechanism prior to the announcement. The spokesperson further noted the potential impact of the measures on global supply chains would be minimal.
• China’s Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) reached 89.0 in September, a slight decline of 0.1 points from August, according to data released by the China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises. Ma Bin, executive vice president at the association, noted that multiple government departments had intensified the implementation of macroeconomic policies, helping the economy maintain a steady and progressive trajectory. Looking ahead, the top priority was to expand market demand to create more development opportunities and growth drivers for SMEs and to strengthen the foundation for sustained recovery. In terms of sub-indices, the labour force and profitability index rose by 0.1 points and 0.2 points, compared with August. Meanwhile, indices for the macroeconomic sentiment, comprehensive business, market, cost, capital and inputs declined by 0.2 points, 0.4 points, 0.1 points, 0.1 points, 0.2 points, and 0.1 points, from the previous month.