MNI China Press Digest March 10: Bonds, Stocks, Growth

MNI (BEIJING) - Highlights from Chinese press reports on Tuesday:

• China’s 10-year treasury bond yield may be pushed above 1.8% in the near-term, due to greater-than-expected PPI improvements amid rising oil prices, said Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities. PPI may see a steeper upward slope, likely to rise to 0.6% y/y for the whole year considering the potential oil price increases and the impact of “anti-involutionary” campaigns on some industrial product prices, said Ming, after February PPI recovered more than expected to -0.9%. However, long-term risks in the bond market may be relatively controllable as PPI-to-CPI transmission could be weakened by insufficient domestic demand, Ming added. (Source: Yicai.com)
• Chinese assets have shown strong resilience in the face of geopolitical shocks in the near-term, with relatively small volatility in the A-share market, Securities Times reported. Hong Kong's stock market also performed relatively strongly, with southbound capital making a net purchase of about HKD37.2 billion on Monday, setting a new record for the highest single-day net transaction, the newspaper said. In the mid- to long-term, the A-share market as a whole is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with the risk-free rate continuing to decline and capital market reforms deepening, the newspaper said citing Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund.
• China’s retail sales are expected to grow by 2.4% y/y in the first two months, Yicai.com reported citing an average forecast of surveyed economists. The indicator will improve from December’s 0.9% reading, supported by better performance of consumer shopping, accommodation and catering, as well as cultural and sports entertainment, said Wen Bin from China Minsheng Bank. January-February fixed-asset investment may decline by 3.2%, compared to 2025’s 3.8% fall, amid a potential shortage of projects, despite sufficient available funds at the beginning of 2026, said Lu Zhengwei of Industrial Bank. The average forecast for industrial output is 5.3%, close to December’s 5.2% growth. The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the latest data next Monday.