MNI China Press Digest Dec 16: Economy, Deposits, Property

Highlights from Chinese press reports on Tuesday:

• China’s slowdown in consumption growth to 1.3% y/y in November was due to high base effects and factors such as the earlier timing of “Double 11” promotional campaigns, which brought forward part of consumer spending, according to Tao Chuan, chief economist at Guolian Minsheng Securities. Over the longer term, he said, a sustained recovery in consumption will hinge on improvements in residents’ income expectations and the continued expansion of consumption scenarios. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, observed that from January to November, manufacturing investment in sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, as well as new energy vehicle manufacturing, maintained relatively strong growth, underscoring the accelerated development of new quality productive forces. He added that interest rate cuts and reductions in the reserve requirement ratio may be implemented more quickly in 2026, while fiscal policy at the start of next year is expected to step up efforts to support consumption and accelerate infrastructure investment.
• The latest central bank data indicated that in November the growth rate of yuan deposits slowed markedly, experts told the Yicai news agency. Non-bank deposits rose by CNY80 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of CNY100 billion, with most institutional analyses suggesting that the pace of residents’ “deposit migration” had temporarily eased, largely reflecting reduced activity in capital markets. Wang Xianshuang, chief banking analyst at China Merchants Securities, said non-bank deposits had rebounded strongly in October, mainly due to banks’ quarter-end efforts to attract resident and corporate deposits, which in turn led to swings in wealth management and margin deposits—underscoring the inherently volatile nature of non-bank deposits. Data from other institutions showed that the volume of resident deposits maturing next year will exceed CNY170 trillion, nearly CNY20 trillion more than this year, with many industry professionals noting that the “deposit migration” trend will continue into next year.
• The proportion of people searching for second-hand homes reached 65.8% in November, rising for five consecutive months, according to data from Anjuke, a real-estate research firm. However, the popularity did not raise prices as a surge in supply diluted demand enthusiasm, with listing volumes in some cities increasing significantly, according to Zhang Bo. Core cities may see narrowing declines in the future due to resilient demand, but the overall market is still in a stage of bottoming out and building momentum, Zhang added. Specifically, in November, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.4% month on month, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points compared with October. In November, second-hand housing sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.1% month on month, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared with October.