MNI CBRT Preview - September 2025: A Slower Easing Pace

Download Full Report Here 

Executive summary:

• While the CBRT had been expected to continue with the 300bp easing pace established in July, the stronger-than-expected inflation data for August and recent political developments warrant a more cautious approach.  
• The median expectation as per an analyst survey now looks for a 200bp cut to the one-week repo rate, which would take it to 41%.
• An even smaller rate cut is not ruled out, although a pause entirely appears highly unlikely at this stage.

The CBRT’s 300bp cut to the repo rate in July came as a slight surprise compared to market expectations. The flat trend of underlying inflation in June justified easing, but policymakers stressed that persistent threats to the disinflation process would mean future decisions will be made prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Given this stance, a sub-300bp rate cut is widely anticipated this month, with policymakers expected to show that the central bank stands ready to react to shocks that increase risks around the inflation outlook.

Given that the CBRT has maintained the 300bp gap between the overnight lending rate (46%) and the policy rate (43%), policymakers still have the flexibility to tighten conditions by shifting funding across windows even if it decides to proceed with rate cuts. This was demonstrated during the episode of political turmoil earlier in the year. As such, an unchanged decision from the CBRT this week would come as a significant surprise.