MNI CBR Preview - October 2025: Odds Lean Toward Cut

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Executive Summary:

• The CBR is expected to continue with monetary policy easing given the absence of any new significant inflationary risks.
• However, Governor Elvira Nabiullina has previously advised that further easing is to be approached with caution, meaning an unchanged decision remains a possibility as well.
• According to a poll published by Vedomosti, 10 out of 22 economists expect the CBR to keep the key rate unchanged at 17%, 6 predict it will lower the rate by another 100bps to 16%. The remaining 6 also expect another cut, but their range of estimates varies between 50-200bps.