MNI CBR Preview - March 2025: Softening Hawkish Language

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Executive summary:

• The CBR is expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 21% again this month given that inflationary pressures and lending dynamics have not developed in a way which would warrant a further tightening of monetary policy.
• Instead, RUB appreciation and further signs of a moderation in demand indicators could allow policymakers to tone down hawkish language (and, in particular, remove any reference to hiking rates), though annual inflation running above 10% will likely prevent the Bank from starting an easing cycle for now.
• Among sell-side, all analysts we have surveyed expect the CBR to stand pat on rates this month, though some see easing commencing in Q2.