MNI BRIEF: US Jobless Rate Jumps To 4.6% In November

The U.S. unemployment rate jumped two-tenths to 4.6% in November from September, the upper end of the range of projections for end-2025 unemployment by Federal Reserve officials, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics cautioned the estimate was likely less accurate due to the federal government shutdown. 

Total nonfarm payrolls were 64,000 in November after a net decrease of 105,000 jobs in October, including a loss of 162,000 federal government positions as employees who accepted a deferred resignation earlier in the year came off payrolls, the BLS said Tuesday. Payrolls estimates for August and September were also revised down by 33,000. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government declined by another 6,000, the BLS said.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the FOMC will need to be careful in assessing particularly the household survey data for November as there are myriad technical reasons that would distort the data. The Fed cut rates for a third straight meeting in December and signaled worries over employment weakness. (See: MNI: Fed Biased To Ease With Focus On Jobs - Ex-Officials) 

Average hourly earnings rose by 3.5% in November from a year ago, and the average workweek edged up 0.1 from a month earlier to 34.3 hours. 

Collection of November household survey data began a day late due to the shutdown and was extended to provide more time to contact people around Thanksgiving, but the response rate was still lower than usual at 64.0%, the BLS said. It is not possible to precisely quantify the effect of the federal government shutdown on either the household or establishment surveys, it added.