MNI BRIEF: US December Core CPI Softer Than Expected

U.S. CPI added 0.307% in December, short of analyst expectations for a 0.37% rise, and core CPI increased 0.239%, below the 0.35% expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The annual change for headline CPI stayed at 2.7% and core fell two-tenths to 2.6%. 

Shelter was the largest component of inflation last month, rising 0.4% or 3.2% over the year, the BLS said. Core CPI excluding housing, or supercore CPI, was up 0.29%, according to an MNI calculation, below analyst estimates for a 0.57% increase. Over 2025, medical care (+3.2%), household furnishings and operations (+4.0%), recreation (+3.0%), and personal care (+3.7%) saw significant rises, with the 1.2% one-month jump in recreation the largest ever reported in the index going back to 1993, the BLS said. 

The December inflation report is the last major data release ahead of the Fed’s January meeting. Analysts expect the FOMC to hold rates steady. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Could Cut Around 100BP This Year-Bell )