MNI BRIEF: Riksbank Cuts 25bp, Sees Chance Of Another Cut

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2% at its June meeting and left the door open to taking the rate lower still.

The June cut was seen as increasingly likely by analysts in recent weeks in light of soft activity data even though the Riksbank, after lowering the policy rate pretty rapidly from 4% last May to 2.25% in January, had previously signalled that 2.25% could be the trough. The Riksbank cut its growth and inflation forecasts in the June Monetary Policy Report and its rate forecast showed some chance of another 25bp cut this year.  

The policy rate was shown edging down in coming quarters, though another full 25bp cut was not priced into the three-year projection, with the rate hitting a low of 1.88% in Q2 2026. The path was lower than in the previous quarterly forecast which had the rate flatlining at 2.25% throughout the projection period.

Inflation on the target CPIF measure was seen at 1.7% in 2026, down from 1.9% previously, while the GDP forecast for 2025 was cut sharply, to 1.2% from 1.9% and left at 2.4% for 2026.