MNI BRIEF: IMF Revises China GDP Growth Forecast Upwards

The IMF has revised its China GDP growth projection upwards to 5.0 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous estimate from October, a country mission report from the fund said on Wednesday, with the uptick driven by macroeconomic policy measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports.

Although growth was resilant, imbalances remained an issue amid weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures. Low inflation relative to trading partners had also increased real exchange rate depreciation, strengthening exports and raising the current account surplus, the report said. 

Evolving business conditions in China are prompting German member firms – large industrial players and specialised Mittelstand SMEs – to deepen their integration, a senior representative of the German business community in Beijing told MNI. (See MNI INTERVIEW: China Emerging As German Firm’s)