MNI BRIEF: China Needs 4.5% GDP Growth In Next Five Years

China aims to leverage the stability of its domestic circulation to offset external uncertainties over the next five years, targeting an economic growth rate of at least 4.5%, Yang Weimin, former vice chairman of the Economic Affairs Committee of the CPPCC National Committee, said Friday at Caixin Summit 2025.

Over the next decade, an average annual growth rate of 4.17% will be needed, with total GDP projected to reach CNY175 trillion by 2030, an increase of CNY35 trillion from 2025, Yang said. Sustaining the nearly 30% contribution of net exports to growth seen in recent years will be difficult, while investment’s contribution needs to rise, though it is unlikely to return to previous peaks, he added.

As such, sustaining growth within a reasonable range must rely increasingly on the continuous expansion of household consumption, he said. Achieving this will require enhancing household consumption capacity, raising residents’ disposable income, increasing the share of fiscal spending on public services, and using state capital to support social security funds, Yang added, suggesting authorities set detailed targets in these areas. (See MNI INTERVIEW: China’s Growth To Slow Without Model Changes–Wu)