MNI BRIEF: CBRT Ups 2025 Inflation Projection, Holds Targets

The Central Bank of Turkey raised its year-end inflation projection from 27% to 32% on Friday, but left interim targets for 2026 and 2027 unchanged. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: CBRT To Cut 100Bp in Dec, Keep Targets-Turhan)

Having stated in August’s Inflation Report that inflation would be 25-29% in 2025, the CBRT used November’s edition to announce that it is now projected to be between 31% and 33%. 

Inflation is still expected to decline to between 13% and 19% at end-2026, then to single-digit levels at end-2027 and then stabilise at the medium-term inflation target of 5%. Interim targets for 2025, 2026 and 2027 were left unchanged at 24%, 16% and 9%.

The CBRT has cut rates by 300bps since July to leave the 1W repo rate at 39.5%, with inflation standing at 32.9% in October. Leading indicators suggest that Q3 domestic demand is at disinflationary levels, the CBRT said.