EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The BoJ held rates steady, as expected, at the end Oct policy meeting. Focus remains on hike risks at the Dec or Jan meetings, with no clear consensus on when the central bank will tighten rates further.
- Our bias rests with a Jan move, as the central bank seeks more information, particularly on wages, before deciding to act again. Still, a Dec move can't be ruled out. The Q4 Tankan report (out a few days before the Dec meeting) will be closely watched.
- Market pricing doesn't have a hike priced in until further into 2026.
FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING BOJ Review - Oct 2025.pdf: