MNI BOE Review: Sep 2025 - Nothing to change Q4 expectations

For the full MNI BOE Review, including updated summaries of over 20 sell side analysts click here.

• With guidance unchanged, the 7-2 vote as expected and little new of note in the Minutes we think there should have been little to change the prospect of a Q4-25 cut in the September MPC meeting.
• However 10/21 sell side analysts that we track have pushed back their expectations of the timing of their next cut (albeit analysts still remain more dovish overall than market pricing).
• We think that markets under-price the prospect of both a November and a December cut.
• We look at the implications of the decision to target a GBP70bln APF reduction over the next year and will be watching ILTR / STR operations closely in coming weeks as supply-led reserve balances move below the top of the Bank's PMRR (preferred minimum range of reserves).