MNI BOE Preview: September 2025 - QT Decision Key

For the full MNI BOE Preview including summaries of over 20 sell side views, click here.

• The outcome for this week’s MPC meeting can be boiled down to two discrete topics: the vote surrounding the pace of APF reduction and any updates on communications and the vote surrounding Bank Rate. The biggest uncertainty and market reaction is expected around the former, with much less focus being placed upon the latter – but neither aspect should be ignored.
• If the APF decision was down to us, we would favour a target of GBP60-65bln with active sales in line with this year but with a change to the maturity buckets to re-align with the DMO. That would see short remaining at 3-7 years, medium to 7-15 years (rather than BOE’s 7-20 years) and long 15+ years (rather than 20+ years).
• Around 70% of analysts look for the decision to be between GBP60-75bln - but the range is wide from ending active sales (GBP49bln total reduction) to continuing with the total reduction of GBP100bln.
• A 7-2 vote split is widely expected (by us and the analyst previews we have read) with both Dhingra and Taylor dissenting for a 25bp cut.
• We would be surprised by a change in guidance - given that it was tweaked at the last meeting.