BOE: MNI BOE Preview - November 2025: It's All About Bailey

Nov-05 13:34

For the full MNI BOE Preview click here

  • Thursday's MPC decision is far from certain - indeed we would categorise our own view of the outcome as 50/50 between a 25bp cut and a hold.
  • We look at the drivers for each members' vote and the key data since the last meeting / August forecasts.
  • In essence, we think a 5-4 vote is the most likely outcome but that it could deliver a cut or a hold. Governor Bailey's vote will be the deciding factor here, in our view.
  • We have also summarised over 20 sellside previews.

Historical bullets

SOFR OPTIONS: Call Spread Buyer

Oct-06 13:33

SFRZ5 96.50/96.625cs, bought for 1 in 5k (on Block).

EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls

Oct-06 13:29

SPX: 6,750.6 (+0.5%); DJIA: 46,931 (+0.4%/+173pts); NDX: 25,047.7 (+1.1%).

SONIA OPTIONS: Ratio Put Spread

Oct-06 13:15

SFIZ5 96.05/95.90ps 1x2, bought for 0.25 in 2k.