MNI BCB Review - Sep 25: On Hold, Hawkish Guidance Maintained

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Executive Summary

• The Copom decided unanimously to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% for a second consecutive meeting, in line with expectations.
• The statement was similar to July and maintained the hawkish guidance for keeping the Selic rate at current levels for “a very prolonged period” to ensure the convergence of inflation to target.
• Most analysts continue to expect the Copom to remain on hold for the remainder of this year, with an easing cycle beginning in early 2026, although a minority still see scope for a rate cut before year-end.