MNI BCB Review – Jun 2025: 25BP Hike, Possible End Of Cycle

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Executive Summary 

• The Copom unanimously delivered a 25bp Selic rate hike to 15.00%, against expectations from a narrow majority of analysts for no change.
• The hawkish statement signalled a pause and possible end to the hiking cycle, but did not rule out further hikes and emphasised that monetary policy will remain in significantly contractionary territory for a very extended period.
• Most analysts now expect the Copom to remain on hold for the remainder of this year, with an easing cycle beginning in early 2026, although some still see scope for a rate cut before year-end.