MNI Banxico Review – Jun 2025: 50BP Cut, Easing Pace To Slow

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Executive Summary

• Banxico’s governing board cut the overnight rate by a further 50bp to 8.00%, as was widely expected. The decision was split, with Deputy Governor Heath voting to keep the policy rate on hold.
• While the committee still sees significant downside risks to growth, near-term inflation forecasts have risen, and the forward guidance for cuts of a similar magnitude ahead was dropped.
• Analysts expect the Board to slow the easing pace to 25bp in August and continue to forecast a year-end rate in a 7.0-7.50% range.