MNI:AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE A$+11027

TYH4 is trading at 110-29, + 04 from NY closing levels.

• Futures have opened slightly higher in Asia trading, with outright buying fueling the push higher. This follows Monday's sharp sell-off (Powell and better data the key drivers).
• In terms of technicals, the Mar'24 10Y futures hit a low of 110-22+ on Monday, below the Jan 19 support level of 110-26. Moreover, the close below 110-26 could now signal a bear trigger and see another move lower to the Dec 13 support of 110-16.
• Cash yields pushed higher in Monday US trading, with the curve 10-15bps wider, the 2Y was 10.8bps higher while the 10Y was 13.8bps higher into the close. The large move the past two days (27bps for the 10Y) has seen outright yield buyers emerge and cash yields are opening 1-2bps lower in Asia Tuesday dealings.
• Tuesday focus: no data, but several Fed speakers are scheduled: Cleveland Fed Mester economic outlook at 1200ET, MN Fed Kashkari moderated Q&A, livestreamed at 1300ET, Boston Fed Collins open remarks labor conference, livestreamed, no Q&A at 1400ET, Philly Fed Harker on Fed role in the economy, text, Q&A at 1900ET.

• MNI: UK BRC JAN BY VALUE SHOP SALES LFL +1.4% YY, TOTAL +1.2% YY

UK Total Retail Sales growth slowed to +1.2% Y/Y in January (vs +1.7% Y/Y prior) - the lowest since August 2022, similarly Like-For-Like Sales rose less at +1.4% Y/Y (vs +1.9% Y.Y prior).

• Total Retail Sales is now below the 3-month average growth of +1.9% as well as below the 12-month average growth of +3.4%. Although this is partly due to falling inflation.
• The main driver for the slowdown in sales growth was an increased rate of decline in Non-Food Sales to -1.8% 3M Y/Y (vs -1.5% 3M Y/Y prior) - which was below both the 12-month average decline of -0.5%.
• Food Sales rate of growth also contributed to the slowdown, although it remained in growth Y/Y in January, as the rate of increase declined to +6.3% 3M Y/Y (vs +6.8% 3M Y/Y prior).
• ONS Retail Sales (ex-fuel) rose +2.3% Y/Y in value-terms in December. The ONS series continues to run above the BRC retail sales, but the trend is indicating that in value terms the ONS series is unlikely to see a significant rise in January.
• Data covers 31 December 2023 - 27 January 2024.

Source: MNI,ONS,BRC-KPMG