MNI Asia Pac Weekly Macro Wrap:

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Executive Summary:

JAPAN 

• Japan Sep labour cash earnings were close to market forecasts. Headline earnings rose 1.9%y/y, in line with market forecasts, while real earnings were -1.4%y/y (against a -1.5% forecast). Real earnings have now been in negative territory for the whole of 2025 (in y/y terms). Household spending was also below forecast. It's unlikely to shift BOJ thinking though. All eyes are on Ueda's speech on Dec 1 for Dec versus Jan hike risks. 

AUSTRALIA 

• The RBA Monetary Policy Board unanimously left rates at 3.6%, as was widely expected, and sounded generally cautious. With risks "in both directions" and the degree of restrictiveness difficult to assess, the Board doesn't have a stance and appears on hold for now.
• September household spending was softer than expected rising 0.2% m/m to be up 5.1% y/y after 4.9% y/y. Q3 consumption volumes rose 0.2% q/q, the fifth consecutive quarterly rise. Growth continued to recover rising 2.7% y/y, the highest since Q1 2024 but pressured by contracting alcohol & tobacco.

NEW ZEALAND

• NZ whole milk powder prices fell at the overnight GDT auction. We were down another 2.7% to the low $3500 region. This is the lowest level since Sep last year and we are around 20% off earlier 2025 highs.

SHORT TERM RATES 

• Interest rate expectations across the $-bloc have seen mixed performance over the past 3 weeks, with Australia (+25bps) and the US (+15bps) firmer, but New Zealand (-2bps) and Canada (-4bps) little changed.

CHINA 

• The September expansion of the RatingDog PMI manufacturing seemed to reflect a period of expansion ahead of the Xi Trump meeting. Oct export growth fell into negative territory (the weakest print since Feb this year), but there were some caveats. 

SOUTH KOREA 

• The October CPI in Korea topped forecasts and prior month result, giving the BOK yet another reason to hold.

ASIA 

• Indonesia inflation was higher than expected in October, boosted by higher gold prices, and above September’s prints. Headline rose to 2.9% from 2.7% and core to 2.4% from 2.2% - still around Bank Indonesia’s 2.5% corridor mid-point.
• The final HSBC India Manufacturing PMI saw a strong improvement on the month prior, re-affirming that the manufacturing sector appears to not be hurting by US sanctions or various threats.
• Philippines Q3 GDP was well below forecasts, boosting the case for a Dec BSP cut. 

ASIA EQUITY FLOWS 

• Outflows remain the theme, with South Korea in focus amid global AI/tech valuation concerns.