MNI ASIA OPEN: Tsy Yields Decline Ahead Heavy Data Docket Tues
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- MNI US-CHINA: Trump Talks Broad Range of Topics with Xi
- MNI US TSYS: SF Fed Daly Supports Dec Rate Cut
- MNI US: Marjorie Taylor-Greene's Exits Raises Risk Of GOP Losing House Majority
- MNI LOOK AHEAD: Pre-Thanksgiving Data Highlighted By Retail Sales and PPI
- MNI FED: Waller Backs Dec Rate Cut, Clearly Remains in Consideration For Fed Chair
- MNI US DATA: Chicago Fed U/E Rate Nowcast Eyes Stabilization In November
US
MNI FED: Waller Backs Dec Rate Cut, Clearly Remains in Consideration For Fed Chair
Fed's Waller speaks on Fox Business, striking a familiar tone and advocating for a December rate cut:
- "SINCE LAST FED MEETING AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS NOT MUCH CHANGE, INFLATION NOT A BIG PROBLEM WITH LABOR MARKET WEAK, ADVOCATING FOR A RATE CUT AT THE DECEMBER MEETING"
- He is, however, more interesting when commenting on policy for early 2026, stating that a January meeting will be "tricky", with a flood of incoming data meeting that the Fed need to adopt a meeting-by-meeting approach.
- Likely hinting at his candidacy for Fed chair next year, Waller says:
- "TALKED TO BESSENT ABOUT 10 DAYS AGO, HAD ANOTHER GREAT MEETING TALKING ABOUT ECONOMICS AND MARKETS, THINK THE ADMINISTRATION IS LOOKING FOR SOMEONE WITH EXPERIENCE WHO KNOWS HOW TO DO THE JOB" - Reuters
WSJ: "Fed's Daly Says in Interview She Supports Lowering Rates at Meeting Next Month -- Sees Sudden Deterioration in Job Market as Both More Likely, Harder to Manage Than Inflation Flare-Up".
MNI STIR: Markets See Waller As Net Hawkish As Non-Committal Beyond Dec
Initial market reaction to comments from Fed Governor (and candidate for Chair) Waller was dovish as he reiterated his support for a Dec cut, before his more cautious stance surrounding the need for easing beyond that meeting countered the move.
NEWS
MNI US-CHINA: Trump Talks Broad Range of Topics with Xi
Latest from Trump via social media: "I just had a very good telephone call with President Xi, of China. We discussed many topics including Ukraine/Russia, Fentanyl, Soybeans and other Farm Products, etc. We have done a good, and very important, deal for our Great Farmers — and it will only get better. Our relationship with China is extremely strong! This call was a follow up to our highly successful meeting in South Korea, three weeks ago. Since then, there has been significant progress on both sides in keeping our agreements current and accurate. Now we can set our sights on the big picture. To that end, President Xi invited me to visit Beijing in April, which I accepted, and I reciprocated where he will be my guest for a State Visit in the U.S. later in the year. We agreed that it is important that we communicate often, which I look forward to doing. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
MNI US: Marjorie Taylor-Greene's Exits Raises Risk Of GOP Losing House Majority
Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) announced on Friday that she would resign from Congress, effective January 6, 2026, following a falling out with President Donald Trump over his handling of the Epstein files. Greene’s departure raises the possibility that House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) majority could be reduced to a single vote. The current House balance stands at 219 Republicans/213 Democrats. When MTG departs, the balance will be reduced to 218-213 until a special election can be called to fill the vacant seat in the Spring.
US TSYS
MNI US TSYS: Remain Buoyed, SF Fed Daly Supports Dec Rate Cut
- Treasuries running at/near late session highs as SF Fed Pres Daly says she is supportive of a Dec rate cut in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, adding the "FED SHOULDN'T HOLD OFF ON RATE CUT OUT OF FEAR .. DISAGREEMENT AMONG OFFICIALS REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY" WSJ.
- Daly book-ends the session after early morning comments from Fed Gov Waller - "SINCE LAST FED MEETING AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS NOT MUCH CHANGE, INFLATION NOT A BIG PROBLEM WITH LABOR MARKET WEAK, ADVOCATING FOR A RATE CUT AT THE DECEMBER MEETING".
- Currently, TYZ5 trades +4 at 113-12 vs. 113-13 high. Last week’s breach of resistance at 113-02, an area of congestion since Nov 5, marks a bullish development and suggests scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. Note that the move higher also cancels a recent short-term bearish theme.
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: Softer Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Belies Strong Details
The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey offered a puzzling look at manufacturing activity in November, with the headline general business activity index slipping to its lowest since June despite various metrics improving strongly. The Dallas Fed manufacturing headline index for general business activity fell further to -10.4 in November (cons -2.0) after -5.0 in October for its lowest since June.
MNI US DATA: Chicago Fed U/E Rate Nowcast Eyes Stabilization In November
The Chicago Fed's advance November release for its Labor Market Indicators (link) showed broad stabilization in the unemployment rate into November, having roughly re-benchmarked itself to the surprisingly high unemployment rate in BLS data to September. Chicago Fed unemployment rate advance nowcast for Nov: 4.44% vs an upward revised 4.46% in Oct (from 4.36% in last month's full update).
MNI LOOK AHEAD: Pre-Thanksgiving Data Highlighted By Retail Sales and PPI
- This week’s data calendar picks up tomorrow, highlighted by retail sales and PPI inflation for September, although the Conference Board's consumer survey and its labor differential should also command attention.
- Redbook and Chicago Fed CARTS indicators point to solid nominal growth in retail sales, something broadly reflected in analyst consensus for the release, with overall sales seen at 0.4% M/M and the control group 0.3% M/M. PPI inflation will offer a useful albeit not overly timely update on input cost pressures.
- Wednesday then sees weekly jobless claims brought forward for Thanksgiving, including of note the payrolls reference period for continuing claims in November, along with the catching up of the September durable goods report, the MNI Chicago PMI for November and the Fed’s Beige Book for a latest look at liaison survey results.
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 202.86 points (0.44%) at 46448.27
S&P E-Mini Future up 100.75 points (1.52%) at 6721
Nasdaq up 598.9 points (2.7%) at 22872.01
US 10-Yr yield is down 2.9 bps at 4.0344%
US Dec 10-Yr futures are up 4.5/32 at 113-12.5
EURUSD up 0.0009 (0.08%) at 1.1522
USDJPY up 0.42 (0.27%) at 156.83
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $0.91 (1.57%) at $58.97
Gold is up $66.11 (1.63%) at $4131.35
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 13.58 points (0.25%) at 5528.67
FTSE 100 down 4.8 points (-0.05%) at 9534.91
German DAX up 147.31 points (0.64%) at 23239.18
French CAC 40 down 22.98 points (-0.29%) at 7959.67
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
Curve update:
3M10Y -1.814, 21.086 (L: 20.356 / H: 23.395)
2Y10Y -2.041, 53.116 (L: 52.16 / H: 54.719)
2Y30Y -2.699, 117.332 (L: 115.865 / H: 119.242)
5Y30Y -1.8, 107.117 (L: 105.778 / H: 108.477)
Current futures levels:
Dec 2-Yr futures up 0.375/32 at 104-8.875 (L: 104-07.25 / H: 104-09)
Dec 5-Yr futures up 1.5/32 at 109-21.25 (L: 109-17 / H: 109-21.75)
Dec 10-Yr futures up 4.5/32 at 113-12.5 (L: 113-05.5 / H: 113-13)
Dec 30-Yr futures up 16/32 at 117-23 (L: 117-05 / H: 117-25)
Dec Ultra futures up 23/32 at 121-6 (L: 120-11 / H: 121-08)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 114-02 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-29 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
- RES 1: 113-14 High Nov 21
- PRICE: 113-10 @ 11:09 GMT Nov 24
- SUP 1: 112-11+/09 100-dma / Trendline drawn from the May 22 low
- SUP 2: 112-06 Low Sep 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 111-31 Low Sep 2
- SUP 4: 111-23 50.0% retracement of the May 22 - Oct 17 bull leg
A bullish theme in Treasuries remains intact. Last week’s breach of resistance at 113-02, an area of congestion since Nov 5, marks a bullish development and suggests scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. Note that the move higher also cancels a recent short-term bearish theme. Key support to watch is 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support, drawn from the May 22 low, lies at 112-09.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 +0.030 at 96.255
Mar 26 +0.005 at 96.455
Jun 26 -0.005 at 96.710
Sep 26 -0.010 at 96.885
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) -0.005 to +0.010
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) +0.005 to +0.010
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) +0.010 to +0.015
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) +0.025 to +0.030
REFERENCE RATES
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.93% (+0.02), volume: $3.203T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.90% (+0.04), volume: $1.276T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.90% (+0.04), volume: $1.251T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.88% (+0.00), volume: $81B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.88% (+0.00), volume: $174B
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage slips to $1.077B with 7 counterparties this afternoon from $2.503B Friday. Compares to last Tuesday's $0.905B - lowest level since mid-March 2021; this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.
MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $1.1B Duke Energy 2Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/24 $1.1B #Duke Energy $500M 5Y +62, $600M 10Y +82
- 11/24 $1B United Rental 8NC3 5.75%a
- 11/24 $1.9B #Roche 5Y +75a, 7Y +80a, 10Y +90a
- 11/21 No new issuance Friday, $50.6B week total
MNI FOREX: Buoyant Equity Sentiment Unable to Dent Dollar Optimism
- The positive impulse for the major equity benchmarks on Monday has had very little effect on the dollar, as the USD index remains close to unchanged levels on the session. This keeps the DXY within close range of the recovery highs.
- Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s December decision in the absence of fresh data also provides a moderately supportive dollar tone. A break above 100.48 (May 29 high) would be a broader bullish development for the index.
- These dynamics have allowed USDJPY (0.30%) to extend its impressive post-election surge to around 6.3%, while positioning dynamics have also played their part, as the likes of USDZAR and USDBRL were among the best performing pairs last week.
- Geopolitics remain in focus for the Euro as European officials managed to push for some amendments on the Russia / Ukraine ceasefire deal proposed by the US. This initially provided a moderate boost for the single currency, with EURUSD rising to 1.1550 before reversing around 30 pips to current levels as we approach the APAC crossover.
- Overall, EURUSD continues to threaten a more meaningful break below the 1.15 handle and sights remain on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low and a bear trigger.
- Amid the supportive tone for the greenback, USDCAD has spent the majority of Monday’s session consolidating back above 1.41, which keeps a bullish theme intact. Sights are on 1.4140, the Nov 5 high as the next important resistance. Note too that the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jul 23 low, has moved up to 1.4185 and also represents a key resistance.
- For GBPUSD, spot has consolidated its bounce back to 1.31, leaving the pair around 90 pips above the cycle lows ahead of this week’s UK budget. Key short-term resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3167.
TUESDAY DATA CALENDAR
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 25/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 25/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** |  DE | GDP (f) |
| 25/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 25/11/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 25/11/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 25/11/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/1500 |  EU | ECB Cipollone Keynote at Central Bank of Ireland | |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 25/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 25/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 25/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 25/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 26/11/2025 | - |  NZ | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting | |
| 26/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Quarterly construction work done |
| 26/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | CPI inflation |
| 26/11/2025 | 0100/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
