MNI ASIA OPEN: Trump Aims For Trilateral UK/Russia Solution

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI US: American Support For Ukraine Increases
• MNI SECURITY: Zelenskyy Rules Out Territorial Concessions Ahead Of Trump Bilat
• MNI EUROPEAN COUNCIL: Costa Calls Leaders Meeting 19 Aug To Assess White House Talks
• MNI US DATA: Homebuilder Sentiment Still Historically Weak, Boding Ill For Activity
• MNI CHINA: INDIA: New Delhi And Beijing Continue To Bolster Relations
• MNI US DATA: NY Fed Services Activity Sags As Sellers Hike Prices To Buoy Margins

US

MNI US: American Support For Ukraine Increases

A slate of recent polls show that Americans are increasingly likely to support Ukraine, reversing a longer-term trend. A University of Maryland Critical Issues poll “found that support for Ukraine among the American public is at its highest since early 2023.” The survey report notes: “Americans remain overwhelmingly more sympathetic to Ukraine than to Russia, with a marked increase in sympathy Republicans feel toward Ukraine since March.”

NEWS

MNI MIDEAST: Trump Stresses Need To Destroy Hamas

U.S. President Trump posts the following to Truth Social: "We will only see the return of the remaining hostages when Hamas is confronted and destroyed!!! The sooner this takes place, the better the chances of success will be. Remember, I was the one who negotiated and got hundreds of hostages freed and released into Israel (and America!). I was the one who ended 6 wars, in just 6 months. I was the one who OBLITERATED Iran’s Nuclear facilities. Play to WIN, or don’t play at all! Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT"

MNI SECURITY: Zelenskyy Rules Out Territorial Concessions Ahead Of Trump Bilat

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Fox News that it would be "impossible" to give up territory to Russia, ahead of his bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump, which gets underway in roughly two hours. His comment, per Reuters, comes after Trump appeared to confirm yesterday that territorial concessions will be required as part of a comprehensive peace deal.

MNI EUROPEAN COUNCIL: Costa Calls Leaders Meeting 19 Aug To Assess White House Talks

European Council President Antonio Costa has confirmed an extraordinary video conference of European Union member state leaders to take place tomorrow (19 August) at around 13:00CET (07:00ET, 12:00BST). The topic of the video call will be to discuss the White House meetings taking place later today between US President Donald Trump, Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and a number of European leaders.

MNI CHINA: INDIA: New Delhi And Beijing Continue To Bolster Relations

Indian Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, has met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New Delhi, India. The trip is Wang’s first to India in more than three years. Wang said ahead of the meeting: “When the world’s two largest nations meet, it is natural that the international situation will be discussed."

 US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Holding Mildly Lower, Focus on July FOMC Minutes, Economic Summit

• Still weaker after the bell, Treasury futures are off late morning lows, curves mildly steeper (2s10s +0.281 at 56.614; 5s30s +.479 at 108.512) while projected rate cut pricing retreats slightly vs. early morning levels (*): Sep'25 at -20.9bp (-21.2bp), Oct'25 at -33.6bp (-34.6bp), Dec'25 at -52.9bp (-54.6bp), Jan'26 at -64.1bp (-65.6bp).
• Tsy Sep'25 10Y contract trades -1.5 at 111-17.5 (111-13.5L / 111-27H), volume just over 1.1M -- a fair portion of which driven by Sep/Dec quarterly roll. Key support is 110-08+, the low on Jul 15 and 16. Prices faded into the Monday close, however first support is yet to be tested at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low.
• Limited data: August's NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market report showed little improvement in the homebuilding sector, with present sales weakening modestly and selling prospects steady/moderately better. The headline index fell 1 point to 32 - reverting back to June's level which is around post-2022 lows.
• The NY Fed's survey of regional services firms' business leaders showed a deterioration in activity and forward-looking sentiment in August, with inflation pressures remaining prevalent. The current general activity index fell for the first time since March, to -11.7 from -9.3 prior
• Cross asset: stocks flat to mildly weaker (SPX eminis -0.75 at 6470.75; DJIA -30.02 at 44916.1, Nasdaq +4.96 at 21627.75), crude firmer (WTI +.53 at 63.33), Gold weaker (-3.94 at 3332.25). USD index now 0.3% higher on the session as we approach the APAC crossover. Although there has been a flurry of initial headlines from the Trump/Zelenskyy meeting at the White House, few concrete details have been provided regarding the war.

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US DATA: Homebuilder Sentiment Still Historically Weak, Boding Ill For Activity

August's NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market report showed little improvement in the homebuilding sector, with present sales weakening modestly and selling prospects steady/moderately better. The headline index fell 1 point to 32 - reverting back to June's level which is around post-2022 lows, and dashing consensus expectations for a slight improvement to 34. Likewise, present sales reverted 1 point to June levels (35).

MNI US DATA: NY Fed Services Activity Sags As Sellers Hike Prices To Buoy Margins

The NY Fed's survey of regional services firms' business leaders showed a deterioration in activity and forward-looking sentiment in August, with inflation pressures remaining prevalent. The current general activity index fell for the first time since March, to -11.7 from -9.3 prior, with the business climate likewise worsening to -39.3 from -34.6. These are still better than the historically bad readings in April's survey amid heightened sensitivity to tariff-related news, but firmly negative by historical standards.

MNI CANADA DATA: July Housing Starts +4% Led By Vancouver

• Seasonally adjusted housing starts +4% to 294,085 units in July from 283,523 units in June.
• The six-month moving average trend in July +3.7% to 263,088 from +3.6% in June.
• Among the three big cities, Montreal posted +212% YOY in actual housing starts driven by higher multi-unit starts. Vancouver saw +24% YOY rise while Toronto -69% YOY due to a drop in multi-unit and single-detached starts in July.
• The year-to-date total was 137,875, up 4% from the same period in 2024.

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 10.7 points (-0.02%) at 44930.42
S&P E-Mini Future up 0.75 points (0.01%) at 6471.75
Nasdaq up 11.5 points (0.1%) at 21633.49
US 10-Yr yield is up 2.1 bps at 4.3374%
US Sep 10-Yr futures are down 2/32 at 111-17
EURUSD down 0.0035 (-0.3%) at 1.1668
USDJPY up 0.68 (0.46%) at 147.87
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $0.51 (0.81%) at $63.31
Gold is down $4.23 (-0.13%) at $3331.98

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 13.97 points (-0.26%) at 5434.64
FTSE 100 up 18.84 points (0.21%) at 9157.74
German DAX down 44.53 points (-0.18%) at 24314.77
French CAC 40 down 39.4 points (-0.5%) at 7884.05

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

3M10Y +1.419, 10.834 (L: 5.9 / H: 12.264)
2Y10Y +0.281, 56.614 (L: 54.243 / H: 57.8)
2Y30Y +0.183, 116.746 (L: 113.942 / H: 118.212)
5Y30Y +0.479, 108.512 (L: 106.729 / H: 109.211)
Current futures levels:
Sep 2-Yr futures down 0.75/32 at 103-25.5 (L: 103-25 / H: 103-27.3760000000002)
Sep 5-Yr futures down 1.25/32 at 108-20.5 (L: 108-18.75 / H: 108-26)
Sep 10-Yr futures down 2/32 at 111-17 (L: 111-13.5 / H: 111-27)
Sep 30-Yr futures down 6/32 at 113-26 (L: 113-19 / H: 114-18)
Sep Ultra futures down 8/32 at 116-12 (L: 116-03 / H: 117-12)

MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Fading Toward Support

• RES 4: 113-23   76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
• RES 3: 113-07   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 2: 112-23   High May 1
• RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-16 @ 16:48 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 111-10+ 50-d y EMA        
• SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
• SUP 3: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11 

The underlying bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact, supported by the recent clearance of the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high. A resumption of gains would open 112-23, the May 1 high and the next important resistance. Above 112-23, retracement levels are layered between 113-07 and 113-23. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the low on Jul 15 and 16. Prices faded into the Monday close, however first support is yet to be tested at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low.

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Sep 25 -0.005 at 95.895
Dec 25 -0.015 at 96.190
Mar 26 -0.015 at 96.405
Jun 26 -0.015 at 96.630
Red Pack (Sep 26-Jun 27) -0.02 to -0.005
Green Pack (Sep 27-Jun 28) steady to +0.005
Blue Pack (Sep 28-Jun 29) -0.005 to steady
Gold Pack (Sep 29-Jun 30) -0.005 to -0.005

REFERENCE RATES (PRIOR SESSION)
​​​​​​​
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.36% (+0.02), volume: $2.821T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.34% (+0.02), volume: $1.163T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.34% (+0.02), volume: $1.146T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $112B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $240B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage inches up to $38.240B this afternoon from $33.757B Friday, total number of counterparties at 19. Compares to last Thursday's lowest usage of the year at $28.818B on Wednesday, April 16 -- in turn the lowest level since April 2021.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Eli Lilly Issues Another $6.75B Debt

Eli Lilly $6.75B 7-tranche leads today's issuance - note, however, the firm issued $6.5B on February 10 on similar tranches: $1B 3Y +27, $1.25B 5Y +42, $1B 7Y +50, $1.25B 10Y +60, $1.25B 30Y +80, $750M 40Y +90

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 08/18 $6.75B #Eli Lilly $1B 3Y +28, $750M 3Y SOFR+53, $750M +5Y +40, $1B 7Y +48, $1.25B 10Y +57, $1B 30Y +65, $1B 40Y +73
  • 08/18 $2B #Charter Communications $1.25B 10Y +152, $750M 30Y +177
  • 08/18 $1.5B #Marriott Intl $400M 2Y +47, $500M 6Y +85, $600M 10Y +105
  • 08/18 $1.5B #RGA Global $800M 3Y +65, $700M 7Y +95
  • 08/18 $1B #Corebridge Global $500M 3Y +58, $500M 7Y +88
  • 08/18 $800M #Northwestern Mutual $500M 3Y +40, $300M 3Y SOFR+66
  • 08/18 $500M #Ecolab WNG 10Y +67
  • 08/18 $Benchmark McDonald's +5Y +55, +10Y +72
• Expected Tuesday:
  • 08/19 $4B EIB 5Y SOFR+42a
  • 08/19 $Benchmark DBJ 3Y SOFR+52
  • 08/19 $Benchmark IBRD (World Bank) 10Y SOFR+62a

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bunds Regain Ground But Gilt Sell-Off Continues

Gilts underperformed global peers to start the week.

• After strengthening in preliminary trade, in a partial reversal of Friday's sell-off, EGB and Gilt yields bottomed around 9am London time and moved steadily higher for most of the rest of the session.
• The Gilt sell-off in late afternoon stood out. While there was no particular identifiable trigger, a Guardian report that the government was considering adjustments to property taxes served as a reminder of UK fiscal woes which will be increasingly focused upon ahead of the Autumn budget.
• Additionally, anticipation of Wednesday's UK CPI report may have dampened sentiment.
• 10Y Gilt yields hit the highest levels since May, with futures piercing support at Friday's lows.
• The UK curve bear steepened, in contrast to the rally across the German curve. Periphery / semi-core EGB spreads closed little changed.
• Tuesday's fairly thin schedule includes Eurozone current account data. There will also be attention paid to a video conference of EU member state leaders (1300CET) to discuss the US-Ukraine situation.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.4bps at 1.959%, 5-Yr is down 2.1bps at 2.319%, 10-Yr is down 2.5bps at 2.763%, and 30-Yr is down 1.2bps at 3.338%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.2bps at 3.965%, 5-Yr is up 3.3bps at 4.123%, 10-Yr is up 4.2bps at 4.738%, and 30-Yr is up 4.7bps at 5.611%.
• Italian BTP spread down 0.8bps at 79.3bps  / French OAT up 0.3bps at 68.4bps  

MNI FOREX: US Dollar Edges Higher amid Trump/Zelenskyy White House Meeting

• The US dollar has traded with a constructive tone on Monday, initially assisted by softer sentiment for major equity benchmarks, and US yields turning higher across the US session then providing further support. The USD index now 0.3% higher on the session as we approach the APAC crossover. Although there has been a flurry of initial headlines from the Trump/Zelenskyy meeting at the White House, few concrete details have been provided regarding the war, with President Trump stating there is a possibility something could come out of Russia talks.
• The uptick for US yields provided a supportive backdrop for USDJPY, which briefly rose to an intra-day high of 147.99, which marks a post US PPI high for the pair. Above here, firm resistance to watch is at 148.52, the Aug 12 high, of which a breach would be viewed as a S/T bull signal.
• In similar vein, the likes of EUR and GBP have also traded with an offered tone. For EURUSD, while moves have remained shallow, spot has been consistently grinding towards last Thursday's pullback low at 1.1631, while firm support is seen at 1.1583, the 50-day EMA.
• The dollar’s focus this week will be on the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, which kicks off Thursday and includes the keynote speech by Chair Powell on Friday. Attention will mostly be on any nod to a potential September cut, but a large portion of his comments will touch on the findings from the Fed's policy framework review.
• Canadian CPI is scheduled Tuesday, which will be very closely eyed given stronger-than-expected core price momentum in Q2 and an upside surprise would place the technical focus for USDCAD on both the 20- and 50-day exponential moving average supports, located around 1.3760. A clear break would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879, signalling scope for a move back to 1.3576, the Jul 23 low.

TUESDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
19/08/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	EZ Current Account
19/08/2025	0900/1000	*	GB	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
19/08/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	CPI
19/08/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Housing Starts
19/08/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Housing Starts
19/08/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
19/08/2025	1810/1410		US	Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
20/08/2025	-		NZ	Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting
20/08/2025	2301/0001	*	GB	Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
20/08/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
20/08/2025	0200/1400	***	NZ	RBNZ official cash rate decision