MNI ASIA OPEN: NY Fed Inflation Exp Steady, JOLTS Tuesday

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI GLOBAL: Equities Briefly Extend Bounce on US Commerce Headlines on Chips/China
• MNI US DATA: BLS Confirm Cancellation Of October Import/Export Prices
• MNI: NY Fed - Inflation Expectations Steady, Consumers Gloomy

US

MNI FED WATCH: 3rd Risk-Management Cut, Then Easing Bar Rises

The Federal Reserve is expected Wednesday to lower its overnight benchmark rate for a third straight meeting to 3.50%-3.75% but with dwindling support for continued easing, the bar moves higher on further cuts next year. Policymakers offered "strongly differing views" about whether to continue risk management rate reductions in December according to minutes of their October meeting, and the federal government shutdown has delayed figures on employment and prices.

NEWS

BLOOMBER: UKRAINE/Zelensky: No deal with Trump on ceding territory, Telegraph; Tsys pared losses slightly, stocks pared back from Nvidia chip export to China related bounce

US: "Supreme Court seems ready to let Trump fire independent commissioners," Axios

MNI GLOBAL: Equities Briefly Extend Bounce on US Commerce Headlines on Chips/China

"U.S. COMMERCE TO OPEN UP EXPORTS OF NVIDIA H200 CHIPS TO CHINA -SEMAFOR" (Reuters)

• "Seeking a compromise over controlling exports to China, the US Department of Commerce will soon allow the export of powerful NVIDIA GPUs that are roughly 18 months behind its most advanced offerings, according to a person with knowledge of the plan." Link:
• https://www.semafor.com/article/12/08/2025/commerce-to-open-up-exports-of-nvidia-h200-chips-to-china

US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Yields Rise Ahead Expected Contentious FOMC Wednesday

• Treasuries remain under moderate pressure late Monday, near the mid-range for the day by the bell: Mar'26 10Y contract trades -8 at 112-08.5, 10Y yield +.0351 at 4.1702%.
• Treasury had extended lows at midmorning (TYH6 112-02.5 September 25 lows), more flow driven on heavier volumes, rather than headline at least in the first half.
• Treasuries rebound off lows after NY Fed Consumer Sentiment Survey recedes to 3.20% from November's 3.24%. A strong Tsy 3Y auction, drawing 3.614% high yield vs. 3.622% WI, contributed to the bounce off session lows.
• The main focus is on Wednesday's FOMC decision, widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp cut after NY Fed Williams’ uncharacteristic guidance following the delayed September payrolls report. Potentially contentious meeting with many FOMC members preferring to have paused.
• The dot plot distribution will be watched keenly whilst we expect the economic projections to show an upward revision for GDP growth and downward revision for core PCE inflation.
• The FOMC will also see two months of JOLTS data on the first day of their two-day meeting otherwise must wait until the following week for NFP (Dec 16) and CPI (Dec 18) reports for November.
• Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP Weekly, Redbook and JOLTS for Sep/Oct; Treasury auctions include $39B 10Y note reopen.

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI: NY Fed - Inflation Expectations Steady, Consumers Gloomy

U.S. consumers inflation expectations in November were steady across time horizons, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report Monday, while consumers' perceptions and expectations about their current and future financial situation became more negative. The one-year-ahead median inflation expectations was 3.20%, from 3.24% previously. The three-year median was steady at 3.00% and the five-year-horizon was 2.98% from 3.00%, according to the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

• Consumers' expected chances of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 13.7%, modestly above the trailing 12-month average of 13.3%. Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated notably with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago.

MNI US DATA: BLS Confirm Cancellation Of October Import/Export Prices

Additionally, the BLS notes the following: "BLS will not produce an October 2025 Import and Export Price Indexes (MXPI) news release. BLS could not completely collect October 2025 reference period survey data due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data. For many indexes, BLS uses nonsurvey data sources instead of or in addition to survey data to make the index calculations. BLS is able to retroactively acquire most of the nonsurvey data for October. Where possible, BLS will publish October 2025 values for these series with the release of November 2025 data. BLS plans to publish October data with the November 2025 MXPI news release on January 15, 2026".

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 270.74 points (-0.56%) at 47684.2
S&P E-Mini Future down 35 points (-0.51%) at 6842.75
Nasdaq down 85.7 points (-0.4%) at 23490.75
US 10-Yr yield is up 3.1 bps at 4.1663%
US Mar 10-Yr futures are down 7.5/32 at 112-9
EURUSD down 0.0003 (-0.03%) at 1.1639
USDJPY up 0.56 (0.36%) at 155.89
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $1.29 (-2.15%) at $58.79
Gold is down $4.65 (-0.11%) at $4193.08

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 1.66 points (0.03%) at 5725.59
FTSE 100 down 21.92 points (-0.23%) at 9645.09
German DAX up 17.87 points (0.07%) at 24046.01
French CAC 40 down 6.31 points (-0.08%) at 8108.43

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

Curve update:
3M10Y +2.643, 45.367 (L: 41.566 / H: 47.454)
2Y10Y +1.443, 58.712 (L: 56.372 / H: 59.091)
2Y30Y +0.039, 122.981 (L: 120.963 / H: 123.567)
5Y30Y -1.858, 105.916 (L: 104.776 / H: 108.297)
Current futures levels:
Mar 2-Yr futures down 1/32 at 104-7.375 (L: 104-05.25 / H: 104-08.875)
Mar 5-Yr futures down 5/32 at 109-2.5 (L: 108-30.25 / H: 109-09)
Mar 10-Yr futures down 7.5/32 at 112-9 (L: 112-02.5 / H: 112-19) 
Mar 30-Yr futures down 12/32 at 115-7 (L: 114-27 / H: 115-22)
Mar Ultra futures down 11/32 at 118-10 (L: 117-27 / H: 118-24)

MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 113-29+ High Oct 17 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 113-23   High Oct 23
• RES 2: 113-07/22+ High Dec 3 / High Nov 25
• RES 1: 112-30   20-day EMA
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-12+ @ 11:09 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 112-10+ Low Nov 20
• SUP 2: 112-07   Low Nov 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 112-02+ Low Sep 25
• SUP 4: 112-00   Round number support  

A bearish theme in Treasuries remains intact and today’s move down reinforces current bearish conditions. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at 112-26+. This undermines a recent bull theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement, with sights on 112-07, the Nov 5 high and a bear trigger. A reversal higher is required to once again refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 113-29+, the Oct 17 high.

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 steady00 at 96.268
Mar 26 steady00 at 96.430
Jun 26 -0.015 at 96.625
Sep 26 -0.025 at 96.760
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) -0.035 to -0.035
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) -0.04 to -0.035
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) -0.04 to -0.04
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) -0.045 to -0.04

REFERENCE RATES
​​​​​​​
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.93% (+0.01), volume: $3.221T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.90% (+0.03), volume: $1.321T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.90% (+0.03), volume: $1.295T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.89% (+0.00), volume: $88B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.89% (+0.00), volume: $167B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage inches up to $1.703B with 6 counterparties this afternoon from $1.485B Friday. Compares to Tuesday November 18: $0.905B - lowest level since mid-March 2021; this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $1.25B BNP Paribas Debt Launched

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 12/08 $1.25B #BNP Paribas PerpNC8 6.875%
• 12/08 $750M Level 3 Financing 10NC5 8.5%a 
• 12/08 $600M #Guardian Life 5Y +65
• 12/08 $500M #Equitable America Global Funding 3Y +70

MNI FOREX: JPY and CHF Underperform as Core Yields Shift Higher

• Despite the correlation breakdown between rates and the Japanese yen in recent months, higher core yields on Monday have weighed on the low yielders, with JPY and CHF underperforming the G10 basket. A round of hawkish communique from ECB’s Schnabel provided the initial selling impetus for bonds today, extending on the theme seen last week.
• Both USDJPY and USDCHF have risen around 0.35%, assisting the USD index to further recover from last weeks pullback lows as we approach this week’s Fed decision, where market pricing leans heavily towards the FOMC cutting rates by 25bps.
• The bounce for USDJPY was also assisted by a magnitude-7.6 earthquake that struck off the northeast coast, prompting urgent evacuation warnings for coastal areas of northern Japan. These dynamics boosted USDJPY from its overnight 154.91 lows to a session high of 155.99. Last week’s deep retracement for USDJPY has allowed an overbought condition to unwind, and today’s bounce underpins the underlying bullish theme for the pair.
• The more constructive dollar backdrop prompted the likes of CAD and AUD to scale back from recent highs, although both currencies continue to exhibit short-term bullish signals as both RBA and BOC decisions are awaited over the next two sessions.
• Schnabel’s initial Euro boost was very short-lived, as EURUSD faded from1.1672 session highs and sits close to 1.1630 as we approach the NY crossover. Last week’s breach of meaningful 1.1656 resistance has failed to garner much topside momentum, as the tepid optimism surrounding Russia/Ukraine peace talks might be dissipating. Zelenskiy said negotiators discussing a US-brokered peace initiative remain divided over territory amid Trump’s disappointment, and polymarket still assigns a <50% probability of a ceasefire in 2026.
• The RBA meeting highlights Tuesday’s calendar, before US weekly ADP and September JOLTS data are scheduled. BOJ’s Ueda and RBNZ’s Breman are scheduled to speak.

TUESDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
09/12/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
09/12/2025	1000/1000	*	GB	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
09/12/2025	1100/0600	**	US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
09/12/2025	-		US	FOMC Meetings with S.E.P.
09/12/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
09/12/2025	1415/1415		GB	BOE Lombardelli, Ramsden, Dhingra, Mann at TSC
09/12/2025	1500/1000	***	US	JOLTS jobs opening level
09/12/2025	1500/1000	***	US	JOLTS quits Rate
09/12/2025	1700/1200	***	US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
09/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
09/12/2025	-		CA	Bank of Canada Meeting
10/12/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	CPI
10/12/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	Producer Price Index