MNI 2025 Jackson Hole Preview

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Fed policy communications will be a key focus in the coming days, starting with the minutes of the July FOMC meeting (1400ET Wednesday) which will be eyed for the degree of support on the Committee for a rate cut outside of the two dissenters (Bowman, Waller). The main event though is the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Aug 21-23), with the key event being Chair Powell's speech on Friday (1000ET/1500UK). 

• While Fed officials and multiple global central bank/policy figures will be in attendance, the focus as always will be the keynote speech by the Fed Chair, with Powell speaking at 1000ET Friday Aug 22 on the "Economic Outlook and Framework Review".
• Attention will of course mostly be on any nod Powell makes to a potential September Fed rate cut, a prospect which we discuss in this preview.
• MNI's Markets Team believes that in contrast to Jackson Hole 2024, Powell will avoid an overtly dovish nod at this meeting, given how split the Committee appears to be on the need to cut rates.