ASIA FX: Mixed Trends, USD/KRW Higher, PHP & THB Modestly Lower
May-30 05:26
Asian currencies have seen mixed trends so far in Friday trade, in NEA we are seeing some USD gains, albeit mostly versus KRW. In SEA, the bias is more towards USD weakness, although a chunk of this reflects catch up to USD weakness post Thursday onshore closes in these markets.
- USD/CNH is around 7.1900 in latest dealings, slightly up on end Thursday levels. The USD/CNY fixing was lower but comfortably above market estimates. Headlines crossed earlier from a Fox News interview with US Tsy Secretary Bessent, in which described US-China talks as having stalled somewhat. he is pushing for a call between China President Xi and US President Trump.
- Spot USD/KRW is around 0.60% higher, last near 1379/80. Month end may be a factor, while the Kospi is also giving back some of its recent outperformance, last down around 1% and back under the 2700 level. For spot USD/KRW we found selling interest above 1385 yesterday.
- Taiwan markets are shut today.
- In SEA, the early bias was for weaker USD levels, but we are mostly higher now. USD/MYR is back to unchanged last near 4.2435.
- USD/THB got under 32.50, but is back to the 32.65/70 region. IP data was better than forecast, we wait for trade data later.
- USD/PHP was last at 55.60/65. The April trade deficit was narrower than forecast, boosted by better exports and lower imports.
- Indonesian markets are closed today.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-30 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 30-Apr | 1630 | --- | BOE Lombardelli At Economics Teacher Training Launch |
| 01-May | 0930 | Mar | BOE Lending & M4 |
| 01-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 02-May | 0730 | --- | DMO to announce details of long syndication for W/C 19 May |
| 06-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (Final) |
| 07-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 08-May | 1200 | --- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 08-May | 1230 | --- | BOE Press Conference |
| 08-May | 1400 | Apr | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 09-May | 0940 | --- | BOE Bailey Keynote Address at Reykjavik Conference |
| 09-May | 1215 | --- | BOE's Pill At National MPC Agency Briefing |
| 12-May | 1530 | FQ2 | DMO likely to publish FQ2 consultation agenda |
| 13-May | 0001 | Apr | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 13-May | 0700 | Mar/Apr | Labour Market Survey |
| 15-May | 0700 | Q1 / Mar | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
CHINA: Country Wrap: Huge Rebound in China Copper
Apr-30 05:21
- A gauge of strength in China’s copper market has jumped to the highest since late 2023 as buyers scramble to secure supplies. The Yangshan premium — named after a key Shanghai trade terminal — jumped from a low of $35 a ton in late February to $94 on Tuesday, according to data from researcher Shanghai Metals Market. Copper demand is used by many as a useful indicator for general manufacturing activity. (source BBG)
- CAIXIN PMI Surprises to the Upside But Grey Clouds Ahead. In what no doubt will be pleasing to authorities, China's CAIXIN PMI Manufacturing for APRIL rose +50.4 beating expectations for a contraction. As the CAIXIN is a broader representation of corporates, this will be pleasing and suggests that to now there has been some form of recovery in corporate activity. Nevertheless, it is still a significant contraction from the month prior result of +51.2 but beat market expectations that it would contract to +49.7. This marks the lowest reading for the year and possibly spells the beginning for corporates of seeing the impact of the trade war. Output fell to +51.6 from +51.8 and new orders were down from the prior month. (source MNI – Market News)
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2014 Per USD; Estimate 7.2678
- Despite a huge injection of liquidity, China bonds did very little today with the CGB 10YR steady at 1.63%
OIL: Crude Continues Sharp Sell Off On Demand Concerns, Key Data Out Later
Apr-30 05:21
Oil has continued to sell off during today’s APAC session after falling around 3% on Tuesday on continued concerns regarding the impact of US trade policy on global energy demand and that OPEC will decide on another outsized output increase when it meets on Monday. Following soft US consumer confidence and Dallas Fed data, Q1 GDP & core PCE prices later today will be monitored closely for any signs of weakening growth related to tariffs. Today’s China manufacturing PMI was lower with export orders down sharply in line with ship-tracking of China-US flows.
- WTI has fallen below $60/bbl today and is currently down 1.3% to $59.63 to be down 16% in April, worse than April 2020. It reached $59.56, the lowest since April 11, but still above initial support at $58.29. The USD index is down slightly.
- Brent breached $63/bbl earlier in the session and is now 1.0% lower at $62.63, holding above support at $61.51. It is down 15.5% this month.
- China’s official manufacturing PMI for April fell to 49.0 from 50.5, below expectations, while the Caixin PMI decreased to 50.4 from 51.2, above consensus.
- Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory build of 3.8mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Products continued to destock with gasoline down 3.1mn and distillate 2.5mn. The official EIA data is out today.
- Later US Q1 GDP & employment costs, March core PCE prices, April MNI Chicago PMI & ADP employment print. Also preliminary April euro area CPI, Q1 GDP including Germany, France & Italy, German March retail sales & unemployment are released. BoE’s Lombardelli speaks.
