US DATA: Mixed Claims Data But Continuing Drift Lower

Higher initial jobless claims and lower continuing claims offered a mixed bag of a report, but initial claims remain within recent ranges whilst continuing claims saw another week of relative stabilization having pushed higher bacin May/June. 

• Initial jobless claims were higher than expected as they increased to 237k (sa, cons 230k) in the week to Aug 30 from an unrevised 229k.
• The four-week average pushed another 2k higher to 231k having recently bottomed at a low 221k in late July/early August.
• Continuing claims on the other hand were lower than expected at 1940k (sa, cons 1959k) in the week to Aug 23 after yet another downward revision to 1944k (initial 1954k) in the week prior.
• They have recently topped out at 1968k in late July and 1964k in mid-June.
• Note also that revision to the prior week is more notable than it sounds as it revises away what had looked like an increase from the July payrolls reference period. The 1944k, rather than the 1954k first reported, compares with 1946k in July, 1964k in June and 1907k in May. It implies stabilization rather than a further cooling in re-hiring conditions.
• Non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims continue to track above those seen at this point in the year for ‘normal’ non-pandemic years, as has been the case for eight weeks or so now rather than pushing relatively higher still.