STIR: Mix Of Positioning Swings Seen In SOFR Futures On Wednesday
OI data points to a mix of net long cover, long setting and short cover in the SOFR whites on Wednesday, with net long setting then dominating in the reds and greens.
- Swings in wider risk appetite amid a data-driven intensification of stagflationary worry dictated price action for much of the day.
| 30-Apr-25 | 29-Apr-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,093,644 | 1,103,977 | -10,333 | Whites | -43,553 |
SFRM5 | 1,229,946 | 1,269,822 | -39,876 | Reds | +49,366 |
SFRU5 | 1,007,151 | 981,404 | +25,747 | Greens | +46,906 |
SFRZ5 | 1,080,565 | 1,099,656 | -19,091 | Blues | -1,238 |
SFRH6 | 733,938 | 723,293 | +10,645 |
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SFRM6 | 717,141 | 689,143 | +27,998 |
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SFRU6 | 696,516 | 692,978 | +3,538 |
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SFRZ6 | 853,405 | 846,220 | +7,185 |
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SFRH7 | 648,477 | 625,220 | +23,257 |
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SFRM7 | 561,580 | 545,070 | +16,510 |
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SFRU7 | 365,112 | 359,039 | +6,073 |
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SFRZ7 | 398,918 | 397,852 | +1,066 |
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SFRH8 | 270,440 | 267,903 | +2,537 |
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SFRM8 | 189,722 | 188,797 | +925 |
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SFRU8 | 149,328 | 150,450 | -1,122 |
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SFRZ8 | 162,280 | 165,858 | -3,578 |
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ESM ISSUANCE: 3-Month ESM-Bill
| Type | 3-month bills |
| Maturity | Jul 3, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.092bln |
| Target | E1.1bln |
| Previous | E1.083bln |
| Avg yield | 2.262% |
| Previous | 2.355% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.39x |
| Previous | 2.81x |
| Previous date | Mar 04, 2025 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle IN GBPUSD Points North
- In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD is bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. 1.0733, the Mar 27 low, marks a key near-term support. A move through it would confirm a clear breach of the 20-day EMA and signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0656. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.0955, the Mar 18 high.
- GBPUSD is in consolidation mode and importantly for bulls, the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs and above last week’s lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2887, is intact. A breach of 1.3015, the Mar 20 high and bull trigger, would open 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA is required to instead signal scope for a deeper correction.
- USDJPY is trading below last week’s high. The primary trend direction is unchanged, it remains down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 150.86 - is intact. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger rally towards 152.70, a 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg. The first key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low. A breach would be bearish.
MNI: REMINDER: Livestream MNI Connect With BOE's Breeden On Apr 10
You are invited to listen to a Livestreamed MNI Connect Video Conference with BOE's Sarah Breeden.
Details below:
- TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects
- DATE: Thursday, 10 Apr 2025
- TIME: 14:00 - 15:30 BST
- This event will be run as a Zoom Webinar and is a public, on-the-record event.
To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration
