SOFR: Mix Of Positioning Swings In Futures On Wednesday
OI data points to mixed positioning moves in the DOFR whites on Wednesday, with net long setting (SFRU5) and net short setting (SFRH6 & M6) seen before a mix of net long cover and short setting came to fore through in the reds through blues.
| 17-Sep-25 | 16-Sep-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,481,236 | 1,473,552 | +7,684 | Whites | +49,970 |
SFRZ5 | 1,681,573 | 1,676,521 | +5,052 | Reds | -16,082 |
SFRH6 | 1,201,505 | 1,199,302 | +2,203 | Greens | -34,090 |
SFRM6 | 1,040,647 | 1,005,616 | +35,031 | Blues | -4,417 |
SFRU6 | 960,896 | 953,801 | +7,095 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,025,715 | 1,036,932 | -11,217 |
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SFRH7 | 753,128 | 758,116 | -4,988 |
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SFRM7 | 816,132 | 823,104 | -6,972 |
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SFRU7 | 670,627 | 686,603 | -15,976 |
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SFRZ7 | 698,958 | 703,149 | -4,191 |
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SFRH8 | 439,206 | 443,895 | -4,689 |
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SFRM8 | 355,936 | 365,170 | -9,234 |
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SFRU8 | 271,976 | 281,896 | -9,920 |
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SFRZ8 | 289,175 | 284,826 | +4,349 |
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SFRH9 | 186,814 | 184,107 | +2,707 |
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SFRM9 | 178,341 | 179,894 | -1,553 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6399.62, the 20-day EMA, and 6275.78, the 50-day EMA.
- A bullish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its latest highs. The print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5349.70, the 50-day EMA.
CANADA: EURCAD Reaches Highest Level Since 2009, July Inflation Data Awaited
- Today’s inflation data for Canada is the first of two CPI reports before the Bank of Canada's next decision release on Sep 17 (for which a rate cut is around 25% priced). A pullback in employment in July has helped keep further BOC easing on the table since July's hold, but the CPI data will be very closely eyed given stronger-than-expected core price momentum in Q2.
- Any upside surprises would place the technical focus for USDCAD on both the 20- and 50-day exponential moving average supports, located either side of 1.3760. A clear break of this area would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879, signalling scope for a move back to 1.3576, the Jul 23 low.
- In contrast, lower-than-expected readings would further bolster the potential for further easing, likely supporting the underlying bullish trend for EURCAD that has been in place since March. Indeed, after recently breaching the 2018 highs, Monday’s peak of 1.6188 placed the cross at the highest level since 2009. A previous high at 1.6330 is the next target for the rally, while strong support for the cross is seen at the 50-day EMA, intersecting at 1.5940.
- We previewed today’s inflation data release in more detail here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4lzGur2
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