SOFR: Mix Of Net Short Setting & Long Cover Seen In Futures On Tuesday

• While the dollar is not exactly surging Monday, trepidation surrounding renewed tariff concerns have weighed significantly on the likes of AUD and NZD, comfortably the weakest currencies in G10. AUDUSD has seen a swift adjustment back below the 0.6500 handle, fading back into familiar territory for the pair across much of May and June.
• Price action is bolstered by the USD index continuing to respect its test of long-term trendline support and the subsequent grind to fresh recovery highs. The greenback stabilisation is underpinned by US nonfarm payrolls growth beating expectations in June and the impressive pullback in the unemployment rate, which at 4.117% unrounded was the lowest since January.
• AUD will remain in focus ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting (our preview here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4ldBNDE ), where most analysts expect a 25bp cut. With a minority calling for a hold, the confirmation of further easing could place pressure on the 50-day EMA for AUDUSD. The average currently intersects at 0.6471, and spot has not had a daily close below since April 10.
• Standing out even more on the chart is EURAUD, which has broken above 1.8000 convincingly this morning. This extends the bounce from the June lows to around 3.5%, signalling scope for further strength towards a cluster of daily highs between 1.8450-1.8550 from April. Initial Fibonacci resistance for the cross comes in at 1.8248.

"EXCLUSIVE - CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK SURVEYED SOME FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ABOUT THEIR VIEWS ON RECENT U.S. DOLLAR WEAKNESS, SOURCES SAY" - Reuters

Piece writes that a survey was conducted last week, in which the PBOC asked questions related to the U.S. dollar's movements and the causes of its recent weakness and outlook for the Chinese yuan exchange rate, the sources said.

• One of the sources said he interpreted it as a sign authorities are concerned about a sharp appreciation of the yuan against the weakening dollar.
• Another source directly involved in the survey said it seemed to be an assessment of the dollar's outlook as trade negotiations with the U.S. progress.