STIR: Mix Of Net Long Setting & Short Cover In SOFR Futures On Thursday

From state-level data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national April flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 GMT / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) rose by around 0.4% M/M (prior 0.3%) and rose 2.1-2.2% Y/Y (prior 2.2%). See the tables below for full calculations.

• Analyst consensus stands at 2.0% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M, so our tracking indicates some upside risks to headline inflation. That would mirror firmer-than expected April prints from Spain and France earlier. Italy meanwhile printed lower than consensus.
• Current tracking of Core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies broadly around 2.9% (2.6% in March) and 0.5% M/M (0.6% Mar).
• We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at underlying drivers in due course.
• Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.

• On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and the yellow metal continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, the 1.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3239.5, the 20-day EMA.
• In the oil space, a medium-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme, signalling the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. A clear resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, the 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial support to watch is at $58.29, the Apr 29 low. Resistance to watch is $65.38, the 50-day EMA.