HUNGARY: Minimum Wage Will Be Raised by 11%, Lower Than Previously Agreed 13%
Dec-04 08:12
- In a post on social media, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Hungary will raise the national minimum wage by 11% after an agreement between the government, employers and trade unions. Note that is lower than the previously agreed 13% - Economy Minister Marton Nagy had warned in September that this would be a possibility due to lower-than-forecast economic growth.
- Hungary’s retail sales rose +3.1% y/y in October versus +3.0% in September, according to the Central Statistical Office, a touch below estimates of another +3.0% reading. Sales of food, beverages and tobacco rose 1.2% y/y versus a prior +3.0%, while sales of non-food products rose +5.2% y/y from +3.5%.
- Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto held talks with Christopher Landau, the US deputy secretary of state, at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels on Wednesday. Szijjarto said he and Landau were in agreement that Hungary-US ties had entered another "golden age" with the current US president seeing Hungary as a friend "rather than an enemy.” He also noted that the two sides “reviewed the progress made in our energy cooperation."
- No other data releases are scheduled for today. Industrial production figures for October are due tomorrow morning (Est: -3.9% Y/Y; Prior: -1.5%) while Fitch may review Hungary’s sovereign credit rating after market close on Friday (Current Rating: BBB; Outlook: Stable).
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Historical bullets
AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Extends
Nov-04 08:11
- RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6664 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
- RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6562/0.6618 High Nov 3 / High Oct 29
- PRICE: 0.6515 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 0.6505 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6493 Low Oct 24
- SUP 3: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
A softer short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact for now and today’s move lower reinforces this theme. The pair has also traded through the 50-day EMA - a bearish development - and the move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards the first key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. Key resistance and a short-term bull trigger is at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high.
GILTS: Rallying On Risk-Off & Fiscal Speculation, Reeves & Supply Eyed
Nov-04 08:10
Gilts rally on the combination of broader risk-off price action and speculation surrounding domestic fiscal matters.
- Futures as high as 93.81, but initial resistance at 93.96 is untested. The bullish technical theme remains intact in the contract.
- Yields 3-4bp lower, curve a touch flatter.
- Bulls still unable to force a convincing break below 4.40% in 10-year yields at this stage.
- October yield lows untested across the curve.
- Chancellor Reeves will speak at 08:10 London, ahead of an address in the Commons at 11:30.
- She is expected to lay out her objectives for the upcoming Budget (26 Nov) and she is likely to note that the Budget will reflect Labour values, protect working people, focus on "fairness and opportunity" and to protect the NHS. She is also expected to reiterate her commitment to the fiscal rules.
- She is not expected to commit to any specific tax or spending increases and she is extremely unlikely to repeat the manifesto commitment to not increase income tax, VAT or national insurance.
- See recent bullets for more on the likely wording of the address and latest media reports around the matter.
- On the supply front the DMO will sell GBP5.0bln of the 4.00% May-29 gilt this morning.
- Elsewhere, BoE’s Breeden will speak at Santander’s International Banking Conference. Note that the BoE is in its pre-meeting quiet period, so don’t expect her to comment on monetary policy. She will focus on financial stability and there will not be a text release.
GILTS: Opening Calls
Nov-04 07:57
Gilt calls, a tight 93.59/93.61.
