US TSYS: Mildly Firmer With Early Close, Trump Iran Deliberations Continue

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1293/1381 High May 9 / High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1255 @ 16:35 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 1.1102/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12 
• SUP 2: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 1.0943 Low Apr 10    
• SUP 4: 1.0857 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle

EURUSD continues to trade above last week’s low and recent weakness appears corrective. A key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1102, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend and highlight a stronger reversal. Key trend signals still highlight an uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction and highlight a bullish break. 

Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (’26 voter) told Axios that the the White House tax bill or its deregulatory efforts complicates forecasts amidst “tremendous uncertainty”. She had said May 10 that there is a strong case for holding mon pol steady and that it will take time for hard data to show govt policy changes.

• “There are a number of other policies that are still yet to be implemented that could have offsetting effects" on trade policy.
• "We don't want to overreact to trade — that's certainly the topic of conversation right now — because there are other policies that are coming into play”.
• On the upcoming SEP projections to be submitted at the Jun 17-18 FOMC meeting: "I'm grateful that I have four weeks to work on coming up with a modal case, because right now I haven't really been operating with a base case […] I've been operating in a couple different scenarios." "To come up with a modal case that you have a lot of confidence in, I think at this particular moment is going to be really challenging,"
• She talks on three scenarios, which can be found in the full Axios piece, here. 

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 05/20 $7B #Siemens $1B 3Y +40, $500M 3Y SOFR+64, $1B 5Y +55, $1B 7Y +65, $1.5B 10Y +75, $1.25B 30Y +85, $750M 40Y +95