US TSYS: Mildly Firmer On Light Volumes Ahead Of A Thinner Docket

Jul-18 11:03
  • Treasuries are modestly firmer with little meaningful headlines to shift away from dovish Waller comments late yesterday. Volumes are light.
  • Today’s docket is lighter than recent heavy sessions, highlighted by housing data and the preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for July. President Trump also participates in a signing ceremony for the Genius Act at 1430ET with pre-credentialed media.  
  • Cash yields are 1-2bp lower, with 30s lagging declines.
  • TYU5 trades at 110-21+ (+05) having kept to a narrow range since lifting in reaction to Waller. It remains within yesterday’s range though and on particularly light volumes of 180k.
  • Resistance is seen at 110-30+ (20-day EMA) but the bear threat remains present. Support is seen at 110-08+ (Jul 14/16 lows) before 110-03 (76.4% retrace of May 22-Jul 1 bull leg).
  • Data: Housing starts/permits (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey Jul prelim (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Waller on Bloomberg TV (0800ET)

Historical bullets

EU-BOND AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

Jun-18 11:02

The EU has announced that it will look to sell the following at its auction next Monday (June 23)

  • Up to E2bln of the 2.875% Oct-29 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3L1CN4)
  • Up to E2.5bln of the 3.375% Dec-35 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A4D8KD2)
  • Up to E1.5bln of the 0.70% Jul-51 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3KTGW6)

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -2.6% SA THRU JUN 13 WK

Jun-18 11:00
  • MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -2.6% SA THRU JUN 13 WK

JPY: The Yen is finding some broader demand

Jun-18 10:57
  • Some small demand for the Yen here, testing its best level against the EUR, GBP, USD and the AUD.
  • US Yields are testing session lows, with the Tnotes at session high, but the move in Govies are gradual, nothing fast.
  • Yesterday's low in the USDJPY is at 144.41 and will present the first hurdle, and a break below that level, would open back to 143.98.