US TSYS: Mildly Firmer Ahead Of Jobless Claims Latest Test Of Labor Strength
Aug-07 10:43
- Treasuries are mildly firmer as they keep within yesterday’s range on light cumulative volumes so far, with jobless claims, 30Y supply and Trump remarks on the docket.
- Domestic data focus is likely on jobless claims after initial claims in particular have been surprisingly robust in recent weeks, especially in contrast to Friday’s soft payrolls report.
- There could also be spillover from the BoE decision at 0700ET.
- Cash yields are between 0-1bp lower on the day.
- TYU5 trades at 112-06 (-01+) on thin cumulative volumes of 220k, having kept without yesterday’s range throughout.
- It holds a modest back further from what is now latest resistance at 112-15+ from the Aug4/5 overnight high (after which lies 112-23, May 1 high)). Support is some way lower at 110-19+ (Jul 24 low).
- Data: Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), ULCs/Productivity (Q2 prelim), Wholesale trade sales/inventories Jun/Jun F (1000ET), NY Fed inflation expectations Jul (1100ET) and Consumer credit Jun (1500ET)
- Fedspeak: Bostic (1000ET) – see STIR bullet
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy to sell $25B 30Y - 912810UM8 (1300ET). Yesterday’s 10Y tailed by 1bp along with a sizeable decline in bid-to-cover from 2.61x to 2.35x for its lowest since Aug 2024.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $100B 4-W and $85B 8-W bills (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump signs executive orders (1200ET) and later delivers remarks (1600ET). Wires report the Putin-Trump meeting is likely to take place next week, where ceasefire demands on Moscow will undoubtedly be a topic of conversation. Friday’s deadline for Russia has presumably been paused - however secondary sanctions on India and other select countries are expected to proceed. We could hear more on this today.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In GBPUSD
Jul-08 10:38
- In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, signals remain bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Note that corrections have been shallow. This also reinforces the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1637, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to watch is 1.3602, the 20-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3468. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, suggesting the M/T uptrend is intact.
- USDJPY traded higher Monday. The recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 144.95, and the daily close above the EMA highlights a stronger reversal. 146.19, the Jun 24 high, has been pierced. An extension would open 146.77 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, signalling a dominant medium-term downtrend. First support to watch lies at 144.23, the Jun 7 low.
SONIA: Ratio Put vs Call
Jul-08 10:36
SFIZ5 96.15p x2 vs 96.50c x1, sold the Call at -2.75 in 4k.
EQUITIES: Large outright Commerzbank Put Option
Jul-08 10:34
- CBK (18/12/26) 24p, bought for 3.75 in 20k.
As a side note, more interestingly there's a HUGE 472.4k worth of OI in the 20p, of the same expiry.
