FREIGHT: Mideast Tanker Surplus Widens to 30%
Aug-02 16:33
An excess of supertankers in the Middle East compared with crude cargoes for the next 30 days widened to 30%, according to Bloomberg sources.
- This compares to 27% the week prior. The average for the past 12 months is 29%.
- “The vessel supply-side is supportive of a tight market, but VLCC cargo demand growth is likely to remain hamstrung by flat-to-down Middle East crude production,” Omar Nokta, managing director at Jefferies said, cited by Bloomberg.
- Earnings on the benchmark ME-China route were $23,288, according to Bloomberg citing Baltic Exchange data.
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Speaks to Bank of Estonia Governor
Jul-03 16:32
- MNI speaks to Bank of Estonia Governor Madis Muller -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US: Time Running Out For Biden Amid Major Revolt From Dem Lawmakers
Jul-03 16:25
President Biden's re-election campaign appears on the verge of collapse amid a raft of negative polling and growing calls from Democrats to step aside, or face a loss of all three branches of government in November.
- Bloomberg reports: "Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering signing a letter demanding President Joe Biden withdraw from the race... as panic mounts that he’ll cost them control of Congress."
- Prediction markets now see virtually no pathway for Biden to retain the presidency. At time of writing Biden has a 7% implied probability of winning in November, according to Polymarket - which also prices Biden dropping out at a near-certain 80%.
- Markets have rallied around Vice President Kamala Harris as Biden's likely replacement. Polymarket gives Harris a 20% implied probability of winning in November, remarkably high considering the White House maintains that Biden will be the Democratic Party nominee.
- Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reports that Biden spoke with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) today and according to Biden's official schedule, he is having lunch with Harris now where strategy for Biden stepping aside will likely be discussed.
- NBC News reports that there is a complex and potentially risky formula for Biden to punt the nomination to Harris, which involves a transfer via the DNC at the Democratic convention in August.
- The Bulwark similarly runs through the mechanics of a transfer, noting: "I am now convinced that President Biden will step aside as his party’s nominee. This isn’t a value judgment, just an analysis of reality."
- Biden is scheduled to meet with Democrat governors this evening. If the White House can't produce a Hail Mary strategy at that meeting, we could hear a decision on Biden withdrawing from the race as soon as today.
US DATA: Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Sees New Lows For Q2 Estimates
Jul-03 16:15
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q2 has continued its string of recent downgrades, most recently being cut to 1.55% from 1.7% two days ago, 2.2% after monthly PCE, 2.7% at Thursday’s GDP update and 3.0% from Jun 20.
- It’s a fresh low for the Q2 vintage and leaves GDP growth set for almost no acceleration from the 1.4% seen in Q1.
- Forecasts for real consumption have been cut again from 1.5% to 1.1% (from 2.5% last week), whilst real gross private domestic investment has been trimmed from 6.9% to 6.5% (and from 8.8% last week).
- There is a small offsetting upward revision from a reduced net export drag of -0.78pps vs -0.94pps.
- Consumption is seen adding 0.76pp to GDP growth, a deceleration after the 1.0pp contribution in Q1.
- Changes in inventories still provide a large driver on the quarter, shifting from -0.4pp in Q1 to an assumed +0.7pp.
Source: Atlanta Fed
