US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Off Early Highs, Nasdaq Outperforming

Aug-07 15:55
  • Stocks are trading near steady (SPX eminis) to mixed late Thursday morning, the tech heavy Nasdaq index outperforming. Currently, the DJIA trades down 290.26 points (-0.66%) at 43902.33, S&P E-Minis down 5.75 points (-0.09%) at 6365.25, Nasdaq up 90.9 points (0.4%) at 21258.49.
  • Stocks had pared early session gains after Bloomberg reported that Fed Gov Waller "is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank’s chair among President Donald Trump’s advisers as they look for a replacement for Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter."
  • While Waller (with Bowman) dissented against the last rate decision and opted to cut rates, his credibility as an insider candidate relative to Hassett is showing in this market reaction. As the piece notes: "Trump advisers are impressed with Waller’s willingness to move on policy based on forecasting, rather than current data, and his deep knowledge of the Fed system as a whole".
  • IT, Utility, Consumer Staples and Energy sectors buoyed indexes in the first half, leading gainers included Paycom Software +10.32%, Becton Dickinson +7.28%, Advanced Micro Devices +6.45%, APA Corp +6.37%, Zimmer Biomet Holdings +6.19%, Insulet Corp +5.78%, EPAM Systems +5.36%, DoorDash +5.00%, Albemarle +4.64% and Atmos Energy +4.27%.
  • On the flipside, Health Care, Financials and Industrials sectors led decliners: Fortinet -24.75% despite beating estimates (just not by enough apparently), Eli Lilly & Co -14.26% as it’s weight loss drug underperforms in trials. Elsewhere: Airbnb -7.98%, Ralph Lauren -7.56%, Warner Bros Discovery I-6.22%, Deckers Outdoor -3.96%, Tapestry -3.81% and Gartner -3.77%.
  • Companies expected to announce earnings after the close include: Sempra, TripAdvisor Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, GoDaddy, Expedia Group, Akamai Technology, Live Nation Entertainment, Motorola Solutions, Pinterest, Twilio, Microchip Technology Inc, Rocket Lab, Wynn Resorts, Goodyear, Gilead Sciences, Monster Beverage and Block Inc.

Historical bullets

OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline

Jul-08 15:53
  • EUR/USD: Jul10 $1.1650(E2.3bln), $1.1685-00(E1.3bln), $1.1800(E1.3bln); Jul11 $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1770(E2.2bln); Jul14 $1.1600-15(E2.1bln)
  • USD/JPY: Jul10 Y143.95-15($1.0bln), Y144.70-90($1.3bln)

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Treasury Starts Ramping Up Bill Issuance To Rebuild Cash Pile

Jul-08 15:49

Treasury has made its first indication of its cash management plans since last week's $5T increase in the debt limit paved the way for a rebuild in the Treasury General Account: "Treasury plans to increase issuance of Treasury bills to continue financing the government and to gradually rebuild the cash balance over time to a level more consistent with Treasury's cash balance policy." 

  • Treasury also said that it would aim for a cash balance of $500B by end-July, "before approaching levels consistent with Treasury's cash balance policy in September." And not surprisingly, "Treasury will provide further updates about its issuance plans as part of the August refunding announcements."
  • That guidance points to a rebuild to $850B by end-September, which was in the last quarterly Refunding financing requirement document. Treasury's last daily report showed $372.2B in cash as of July 3 so if that target is adhered to, that's over $470B in net cash to raise in just under 3 months.
  • As largely expected, to rebuild cash Treasury will rely on benchmark bills and "specifically, the 4-, 6-, and 8-week bills", as opposed to cash management bills (which are no longer anticipated to be issued).
  • On Wednesday it will sell $65B in 17-week bills, but is upping the ante with $80B in 4-week bills and and $70B in 8-week bills this Thursday, each of which represents a $25B increase on the prior auction. Those will raise a net $15B on July 15 (alongside $31.4B in net coupons).
  • As we noted Monday, the TGA rebuild will weigh on what is now an "abundant" level of reserves currently north of $3.2T, with peak downside pressure on reserves likely to come in mid-September alongside the next key tax date.
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UK: FRANCE-Macron Delivers Address To British Parliament On State Visit

Jul-08 15:48

French President Emmanuel Macron is delivering an address to the British Houses of Parliament as part of his state visit that got underway earlier today. Livestream here. The visit is viewed as an effort to repair Anglo-French ties following the Brexit process. Ahead of the visit, Macron posted on X: "Together, we will address the major challenges of our time: security, defence, nuclear energy, space, innovation, artificial intelligence, migration, and culture. These are all areas in which we seek to act together and deepen our cooperation in a concrete, effective, and lasting way. This is also a significant moment for our Europe. The willingness expressed by the United Kingdom to strengthen ties with the European Union is a powerful signal — one that I welcome."

  • UK PM Sir Keir Starmer there is significant pressure for a deal to be struck with Macron that sees a major reduction in illegal immigration into the UK via small boats across the English Channel. The issue of immigration, and small boats in particular, is a major driver of disaffection with the gov't and a driver for support for the right-wing populist Reform UK, which holds a comfortable lead in nationwide opinion polling at present.
  • Macron and Starmer will also discuss further support for Ukraine as the joint leaders of the 'coalition of the willing' countries that have offered possible peacekeeping forces for Ukraine in the event of an eventual ceasefire.