NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Ticks Up
TTF is ticking up further today, supported by high gas storage withdrawals and as the IEA suggest the market is expected to remain tight.
- TTF FEB 25 up 0.3% at 47.99€/MWh
- The global gas market is expected to remain fragile this year with growing demand while supply remains tight, IEA said in the Q1 2025 Gas Market Report. Demand growth is forecast to fall back below 2% and supply growth of 5% is expected.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to remain above normal from later this week after rising in the coming days but with slightly lower wind generation next week.
- European LNG sendout has fallen further to 328.4mcm/d on Jan. 19 from a high of 438mcm/d last week and an average of 376mcm/d so far this month.
- European gas storage has fallen to 60.24% full on Jan. 19, according to GIE.
- President Donald Trump issued an order on Monday for the U.S. to resume processing export permit applications for new LNG projects, reversing the pause put in place by Biden.
- China’s gas demand is forecast to rise 6.2% y/y to 448.5bcm in 2025 while gas imports are expected to rise 8.7% y/y, according to China National Petroleum Corp cited by Bloomberg.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
