NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls
Dec-04 12:06
TTF front month remains under significant pressure, falling to its lowest since April 2024, weighed on by a warm weather forecast and healthy import supplies.
- TTF JAN 26 down 3% at 27.37€/MWh
- A divergence of gas storage levels within Europe increases the likelihood of wider intra hub spreads as winter progresses, according to Timera Energy.
- Vertical Corridor operators have activated an alternative entry point on the route map to temporarily ease congestion at the Bulgaria-Romania border, EnergyPress said.
- Near normal temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to rise over the weekend and into early next week and remain above normal through the remainder of the two-week outlook. CWE wind generation is anticipated to be relatively higher on the week over December 8-11.
- NW European LNG sendout was steady at 250.8mcm/d yesterday compared to an average of 246.1mcm/d over the previous week, Bloomberg shows.
- European gas storage was down to 74.44% full on Dec. 2, according to GIE data, with near normal withdrawals on the day. The previous five-year seasonal average is 84.9% full.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have recovered to 323.4mcm/d today from 309.8mcm/d yesterday. Gassco shows total unavailable capacity down to 33.4mcm/d today falling to 8.6mcm/d by Dec. 6.
- Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated at 55.2mcm/d today compared to an average of 49.9mcm/d during the last week, Bloomberg shows.
- Turkey's Botas has agreed to a one-year extension of two existing gas supply contracts with Russia's Gazprom that total 22bcm, Energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
- Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. (NNPC) is looking to sell LNG on a term basis and has about 1m tons/year of gas available to market from the Nigeria LNG export project, according to an NNPC official cited by Bloomberg.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: Supra Sovereigns on Tap Tuesday
Nov-04 11:54
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/04 $800M Breakwater Energy 5NC2 9%a
- 11/04 $500M #Sharjah Islamic Bank5Y Sukuk +95a
- 11/04 $Benchmark Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 7Y 6.375%a
- 11/04 $Benchmark Lao People's Democratic Rep 5Y 11.25%a
- 11/04 $Benchmark Standard Chartered Perp NC10 7.375%
- 11/04 $Benchmark QBE Insurance 12NC7 +170a
- $40.7B Priced Monday, driven by Alphabet's $17.5B over 8 tranches and Novartis $6B over 7 tranches:
- 11/03 $17.5B *Alphabet: $1B 3Y +30, $500M 3Y SOFR+52, $2.5B +5Y +40, $1.25B 7Y +50, $3.5B 10Y +62, $2B 20Y +72, $4B 30Y +82, $2.75B 50Y +107 (massive debt issuance includes $6.5B over 6 tranches: 3Y, 6Y, 7Y, 13Y, 19Y and 39Y).
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Oil Futures Still In Play
Nov-04 11:53
- On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged. A fresh cycle low last week highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3864.7. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- WTI futures remain in a corrective cycle for now. Note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
FOREX: EURUSD Testing Below 1.15 as Current Bear Leg Extends
Nov-04 11:51
- EURUSD has been edging lower on Tuesday, extending the pair’s selloff following the breach of important 1.1542 support last Friday. Current price action signals scope for a more protracted move south, towards key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low.
- Price action has likely been assisted by the sharp reversal for EURJPY overnight, with the cross threatening a close below the 20-day EMA (intersects at 176.65). The 50-day EMA remains key for EURJPY, having not closed below the average since late May. It intersects today at 175.00.
- The single currency trades on a firmer footing against the likes of AUD and NZD, owing to the strong risk-off impetus across global markets today.
- SocGen think EURUSD would ‘run with’ any break below 1.15 or above 1.17, although their updated forecasts show they believe an upside move is more likely.
- Meanwhile, ING have noted that despite the hawkish repricing in the USD curve, the EUR/USD drop looks a bit overdone. They add that their short-term fair value model is now showing a 1% undervaluation, and with positioning now much more balanced, the pair can enjoy faster rallies on poor US jobs market news. ING remain optimistic on a rally into year-end to 1.18-1.20.
