CZK: Michl Says No Agreement Over Whether Rate Cut Was Last of Cycle
Michl’s initial comments kept EURCZK pinned to its session lows with his rhetoric unsurprisingly hawkish. However, the cross has since pared the bulk of its decline after the Governor failed to objectively rule out additional rate cuts: he said no agreement was made on whether today’s cut was the last in the cycle. Overall, EURCZK sits ~0.2% lower at typing, still contained within the week’s range. Immediate support is marked at 24.8790, last week’s low, while resistance is at 25.0140, the 50-day EMA.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 5664.68 20-day EMA
- RES 3: 5435.00 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 1: 5040.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 4974.50 @ 14:13 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 4832.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- 7SUP 4: 4519.84 61.8% retracement of the Oc ‘22 - Feb ‘25 bull cycle
S&P E-Minis continues to trade in a volatile manner. A bearish theme remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows, strengthens current conditions. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 4800.00 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
STIR: SOFR Option Update
Flurry of SOFR call selling and position rolling as underlying futures pare/reverse overnight gains:
- -7,500 SFRZ6 96.75/97.75 call spds, 38.5-39.0
- -10,000 SFRH7 96.75/97.75 call spds, 38.5-38 ref 96.875
- -7,000 0QU5 97.00/98.00 call spds, 23.5 ref 96.935
- +7,500 0QN5 96.75/97.25/97.75 call flys vs 0QU5 97.25/97.75 call spds, 2.75 Sep over
FED: Tariffs Boost Fed Cut Calls For JPM, TD, But Barclays Sees Fewer Cuts
A few analysts have changed their Fed rate cut forecasts since Friday, post-payrolls and considering the macro / market fallout from the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement:
- JPMorgan still sees the first cut in June but now sees cuts at every meeting through Jan 2026: "Even though we have lifted our full-year core PCE inflation forecast by 1.4%-points to 4.4% we continue to expect a first Fed easing in June. However, we now think the Committee cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0%. We continue to perceive that the risk is tilted toward a later start to resumed easing rather than an earlier start."
- TD analysts have pulled forward their forecast for the first Fed cut by one meeting to June (from July), with cuts at each meeting through May 2026 (2.5% terminal). "we continue to expect growth/labor-market dynamics to dominate the policy response... We acknowledge significant risks to this view as policy uncertainty remains high and government decisions remain fluid." (Previously they'd seen 100bps of cuts in H2, to 3.25%-3.50%, and had seen reaching a neutral rate of 3.0%).
- Barclays - post-Liberation Day - as we noted on Friday said stagflation would lead to fewer Fed cuts than they had previously seen: 2x in 2025 (Jun and Sep) and 2x in 2026 (also Jun and Sep, had seen 3x in 2026 but removed a Mar cut from their baseline). That outlook includes two-way risks: "that the FOMC delivers fewer (or even no) cuts if there is evidence across a number of measures that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. Conversely, the committee could deliver deeper cuts if the labor market weakens more forcefully than in our baseline".
